Week 15 of the NFL season begins Thursday with an NFC West matchup between the San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 43.5) and the Seattle Seahawks. Despite all the changes at the quarterback position, the 49ers (9-4) have won six in a row and can clinch the division with a win. The Seahawks (7-6) have lost three of four but remain in the playoff hunt.
What can we expect from a betting point of view for Thursday night’s game?
betting analysts doug kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, joe fortenbaugh, anita marks Y erin dolan; sports and fantasy betting analysts eric grumpy Y andre snellings; and ESPN Stats & Information’s Seth WalkerESPN analyst jason fitz and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz provide their best plays for the matchup.
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines unless otherwise noted.
Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 43.5) head to Lumen Field on Thursday night to take on Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks. What do you think about the spread and total, and who are you going to take to win the game?
Kezirian: I’ve been a Seattle sponsor almost every week this season, but i’m in the niners. Purdy looked outstanding and obviously some plays were pretty lucky, but this is more about a Seattle defense that has been limping to the finish line. He ranks 22nd overall in defensive efficiency, but over the past five weeks he ranks fifth-worst in expected aggregate points, and that faced the Bucs, Rams and Panthers with offensive challenges, along with the Raiders.
Plus, the Seahawks were coming off a grueling game with Carolina, forcing them to catch up almost every time, while San Francisco was essentially able to rest their starters in the fourth quarter of a blowout victory. I think the Niners are fresher in this short week at the end of the season and have better defense, so I’ll put the points up.
Schatz: If I had to bet on this game, I would take the Seahawks +3.5, but I don’t care if the line moves to -3, and I don’t care to play the total either. Vegas is pretty spot on with this one. The 49ers are fantastic, currently the best team in Football Outsiders’ weighted DVOA, but still have to be discounted a bit because of both Purdy at quarterback and Deebo Samuel’s injury. Meanwhile, the Seahawks might be a bit underrated. They’re still No. 11 in weighted DVOA with a top-10 offense despite a poor showing in Week 14. So I’d stick with the Seahawks if I get that half point, and stay away if I don’t. .
Brands: give to me Seattle and the points. Yes, the Seahawks have lost three of their last four, but they have covered five of their last six games. The 49ers are banged up, and Purdy is dealing with an oblique injury, in a short work week, and making his first start on the road. In fact, the 49ers have had the luxury of hosting four of their last five games (although one was in Mexico). The Seahawks are averaging 24 points per game and have the offensive power to stay that close. At least they can cover with the hook.
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Christian McCaffrey rushed for 119 yards and two touchdowns last week. San Francisco averaged nearly 6 yards per carry and now faces a Seahawks defense that is among the worst to stop the run. McCaffrey’s running asset stands at 80.5 yards, and his receiving asset is 39.5. Do you like me to top these totals on Thursday night?
Snelling: I like it McCaffrey over 124.5 total rushing/receiving yards. McCaffrey is such a dual threat that sometimes it’s hard to guess where the yards are coming from. He rushed for 119 yards with “only” 34 receiving yards last week, but had 80 receiving yards and just 66 rushing yards the week before. He’s far exceeded 124.5 total yards in both games since Elijah Mitchell went down, and my only concern for this week is McCaffrey getting an injury designation. But, if he’s healthy, he should pass.
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Schatz: I’m going to go with McCaffrey under 80.5 rushing yards despite last week’s 119-yard performance. McCaffrey had fewer than 80 yards in the previous four games. In fact, he had fewer than 40 yards in three of those games. Yes, Mitchell was playing in those games, but Kyle Shanahan isn’t afraid to mix up Jordan Mason, who has racked up 50 yards in each of the last two games. I don’t think the 49ers are running away with this, so they won’t spend the entire second half doing nothing but blowing the clock.
Dolan: my eye is on McCaffrey over 17.5 rushing attempts. Buy this line as you can find it further down in other books. McCaffrey has surpassed this mark in only one of seven games in a 49ers uniform, but expect him to surpass this number with an injured Samuel and the Seahawks’ 31st-ranked defense against the run (allowing 160.5 rushing yards per game). . The Seahawks defense has continued to back down throughout the season. Purdy was impressive in the first start of his career, but he threw the ball just 21 times against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Sunday. Why change the game plan? Run the ball. McCaffrey reviews his running attempts.
Brands: me love C-Mac is in the reception courtyards. Samuel is expected to be inactive, so McCaffrey’s target stake of 30% should increase automatically. Seattle plays two-height safeties on defense and likes to keep everything down. “Captain Purdy Checkdown” should be looking for McCaffrey often.
Rookie running back Kenneth Walker III has rushed for 649 yards and nine touchdowns on 138 carries this season. Walker is currently listed at +300 to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Do you like me supplanting Christian Watson (+300) and Garrett Wilson (+150) for the honor this year? And do you think he’ll have a big game on Thursday night?
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Snelling: It will be tough for Walker to catch Wilson and Watson because their schedule down the stretch is brutal, starting Thursday night. The 49ers have the stingiest run defense in the NFL, allowing the fewest rushing yards and the second fewest total touchdowns at the position (five in 13 games). I go under all walker ground supports Thursday. And, for the rest of the season, the four teams he’ll face are in the top 13 with fewest rushing yards allowed to opposing running backs.
Is there something else you are playing in this game?
Schatz: I’ll play Geno Smith over 1.5 TD passes (+112). Yes, the 49ers’ defense is great, but if the Seahawks score touchdowns, they’re probably throwing them through the air. Remember, the weakness of the 49ers defense is deep passes, and the Seahawks are very strong on deep passes to Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Plus, Smith has thrown for multiple touchdowns in seven straight games! Our projections estimate that Smith passes over this fixture 56% of the time, which isn’t great, but looks good with those positive odds.
Grumpy: George Kittle over 38.5 receiving yards. The Seahawks’ defense has been a drag. Over the last three games, Seattle’s defense has allowed opponents the fifth most total yards. Kittle’s stats have been up and down all season, but he’s facing a Seahawks defense that’s been torched by tight ends. With Samuel’s injury, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan may have to set up more plays for Kittle. The veteran tight end has averaged 62.4 receiving yards per game against the Seahawks in his career.
Brands: I like Moody’s Kittle better, and I’ll add Marquise Goodwin over 23.5 receiving yards also. He has become Geno Smith’s favorite. He had five catches on six targets last week for 95 yards and has four TDs in his last six games. Goodwin plays 54% of his snaps from the slot, where the 49ers defense is most vulnerable. Goodwin has topped 23 receiving yards in seven of 10 games this season.
Source: news.google.com