A significant storm system is likely to cross the entire midsection of the US in the second half of next week. Here are some travel tips to avoid a dangerous change in weather while you’re away from home.
I have some travel time tips for you. I want to emphasize that this storm is still six to seven days away from Michigan and the surrounding states. That is still a significant enough time to see considerable changes in weather details. On the other hand, the model that works best in this situation hasn’t changed much in the last four days.
A large storm system will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley next Thursday through Friday. Ahead of the storm system will be mild air and rain, especially for Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee. A portion of southern Michigan may get mild air and rain in the storm front. When it starts to rain, it’s a bad sign. The rainy area will experience a rapid drop in temperature and will be the area I worry about a flash freeze. A flash freeze is when the rain continues until the exact moment that the temperature drops rapidly.
My first piece of advice is to realize that this should be a significantly dangerous driving situation sometime next Thursday or Friday. So be sure to check back for my MLive updates over the weekend and early next week. I will continue to show you the changes in the weather and how the weather situation will develop.
My second piece of advice, a really useful piece of advice, is to start planning your trip on Wednesday, or even Tuesday afternoon or evening. There could be a window of good travel conditions on Thursday, but you will be racing against a very strong arctic cold front. If you don’t win the race to your destination, your trip could end on an ice skating rink turned interstate. I think it’s a safer bet to get your fellow travelers ready for Wednesday.
Here is the latest computer model run of the most accurate computer model, the European Medium Range Weather Forecast Model, also known as the ECMWF or the Euro for short. The forecast animation starts next Wednesday. You can definitely get a feel for the full-scale winter storm.
Surface weather forecast from 7am Wednesday December 21st to 7am Christmas morning.
The track of the center of the storm will make all the difference in the world in terms of the weather scenario in a given location. The northern half of Lower Michigan and the UP could be covered in snow throughout the storm. The Southern Lower could warm up and rain sometime on Thursday, followed by a sharp drop in temperature to temperatures well below freezing. It’s the southern part of Michigan that could go into the flash freeze. Flash freezing is even more likely in our south in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Note in the forecast animation the green to pink to blue area stretching across southbound areas Thursday night and Friday. The change from rain to snow would be when the flash freeze would occur.
As the storm system moves east, Michigan and surrounding states should see precipitation that turns to snow and continue through Friday. In fact, an inch or two of light, cold snow is possible on Saturday.
Friday won’t be a good day to travel either with much colder snow and strong winds producing blow and drift if the scenery doesn’t change.
In order to have the safest road conditions for driving next week, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will be the safest days. Thursday is probably an aimless type of day, unless you can drive a short distance in Michigan and beat the arrival of the arctic front and a flash freeze. Friday is also likely to be a no-ride day if you don’t want to drive in the blowing and piling up snowdrift.
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Source: news.google.com