Week 11 of the NFL season begins Thursday night with a matchup between the 6-3 Tennessee Titans and the 4-6 Green Bay Packers (-3, 41) at Lambeau Field. The Titans are coming off a 17-10 win over the Broncos, and the Packers are coming off a 31-28 win over the Dallas Cowboys.
What can we expect from a betting point of view for Thursday night’s game?
betting analysts doug kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, joe fortenbaugh, anita marks Y erin dolan; sports and fantasy betting analysts eric grumpy Y andre snellings; and ESPN Stats & Information’s Seth WalkerESPN analyst jason fitz and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz provide their best plays for the matchup.
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines unless otherwise noted.
The Packers snapped a five-game losing streak last week, defeating the Cowboys, and are now 3-point favorites against a Tennessee team that has won six of its last seven. Are you believing the Packers are back or embracing a Titans team that continues to find ways to win?
Brands: Weather conditions are expected to be brutal; 20 degrees, 20 mph winds, snow possible and single digit temperatures. Rodgers should thrive in these hometown conditions, where the Packers score on 37% of their offensive drives compared to 20% on the road. The Titans are the worst team in the league in the second half, scoring on just 7% of their offensive possessions. These are two of the slower-paced teams in the NFL. I’m going to play the Packers -3 and under.
Schatz: I think the diffusion is perfect here, but I’ll agree with Anita on taking the under at 41. It’s not just the brutal weather conditions, but the pace. The Titans are last in the league running a play every 30.9 seconds, and the Packers rank 30th running a play every 30.2 seconds.
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Grumpy: Although I don’t know if they are really back, I recommend betting on him Packers to cover the spread Thursday night at home. In their last eight games played on Thursday nights, the Packers have gone 6-1-1 against the spread. They finally broke through offensively against the Cowboys at Lambeau Field on Sunday and got the win. It will be freezing in Green Bay Thursday night, and the wind chill could make it feel like 6 degrees. There is also a chance of snow. In their last four road games, the Titans have gone 4-0 against the spread, but the Packers are much better off playing the Cheeseheads.
Snelling: I will be contrary and I will take the titans with the dots. They’ve just been playing at a higher level than the Packers, consistently, all season. Also, the weather conditions seem to work more in the Titans’ favor, with their emphasis on the power run game. Try to tackle Derrick Henry, in freezing weather, all night? Around that 15 or 20 carry, I would imagine that’s a very unfun prospect for the Titans defense.
fitz: I love titans in the showdown. LOVE. The Packers have been bad against the run this season and are about to face a Titans team that won’t stop trying to run the ball no matter what. Bass is always my favorite from “Thursday Night Football” and in this matchup I think the Titans are going to slow down to maximize time of possession. The loss of center Ben Jones is important to the Titans’ offensive line, but even that won’t help Green Bay. This feels like a “pay attention to us too” moment for Tennessee.
Two-time defending NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers has had a bad year by his standards. His accessories for Thursday against the Titans are 247.5 passing yards. 22.5 completions, 33.5 attempts, and 1.5 TDs. Are you taking any of those?
Dolan: Rodgers over 1.5 touchdown passes. He has surpassed this mark in seven of the 10 games played this season. The Titans defense is bad against the pass, he ranks 31st and allows 273 passing yards per game. Green Bay is averaging only 19 points per game, but I think the Titans’ defense could be exposed through the air.
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Brands: Rodgers 1.5+ TD passes, 33.5+ pass attempts. The Titans have one of the best run defenses in the league, so teams have to pass them to win. Quarterbacks are averaging 40 pass attempts per game against Tennessee (Patrick Mahomes threw it 68 times), and 80% of the Packers’ TDs have come via the pass and 90% of the TDs that let the Titans are through the air.
fitz: I like the 1.5 TD excess simply because Green Bay is not going to run the ball well in this matchup and the only way the Packers are going to stick with it is to trust Rodgers. However, I also think the Packers will be ripe for turnovers, so playing Rodgers over .5 INTs feels like easy money.
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The Titans go the way Derrick Henry goes. Henry (923 yards) trails Saquon Barkley by eight yards for the NFL lead in rushing. His rushing support for Thursday is 97.5 yards and he is the betting favorite at +225 to finish the season with the most rushing yards. Are you playing prop or future?
Brands: Henry over 97.5 rushing yards. Henry is the last straw for the Titans and now faces a Packers defense that ranks 27th in the NFL against the run (28 in yards before contact and 25 after). Henry is averaging over 120 yards per game, and with weather conditions expected to sit in the single digits, he’s going to be tough to tackle, let alone anyone who wants to try.
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Schatz: It’s not just that Henry gets by far the majority of the Titans’ carries, but also that the Packers’ defense is miserable against the run. They rank last in the league in adjusted defensive yards and 31st in running back filler for loss or no gain. Especially in cold weather, Henry shouldn’t have a problem racking up rushing yards, and I like that he goes about his career strut.
Snelling: Henry over 97.5 rushing yards. As I mentioned above, this looks like a Henry game, to me. The Titans’ confidence in him, the temperature and the Packers’ issues against the run all combine to make it a play for me.
fitz: I will echo everyone else. I trust that over 97.5 rushing yards, but I also like the more rushing yards of the season. Titans never get cute. They do what they do and don’t really care about the use. The fact that Henry sits eight yards behind Barkley in a year in which the Titans’ quarterback’s play has been average (Tannehill) or just plain awful (Willis) speaks to his ability to run the ball even when you know they have no other options. I don’t see any reason why that would change down the stretch for El Rey or his team.
Is there anything else you like or are playing in this matchup?
Fortenbaugh: Less than 41 points for me. We know Tennessee wants to run the ball with Henry, which should work well against a Green Bay defense that ranks 30th in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics. The Packers put on a good offensive show against Dallas, but this unit still ranks 25th in the NFL in scoring (18.5 PPG).
Brands: Aaron Jones over 24.5 receiving yards. Jones is the Packers’ primary running back, even with the availability of AJ Dillon. The Titans only allow 3.9 yards per carry, so teams average less than 20 carries per game and become pass-heavy. Jones is a big part of the Packers’ passing game and is averaging over 20 receiving yards per game (nine receptions for 53 yards last game), and has 228 receiving yards on the season. The Titans have been vulnerable against ball carriers.
Grumpy: Ryan Tannehill under 187.5 passing yards. The Packers defense allows the seventh most rushing yards per game. The Titans have been heavily reliant on Henry all season, and that trend appears to be continuing. This season, Tennessee has run the ball on 52% of plays, tied for third in the league. The league average is 41%. With the matchup and the weather, it makes sense for the Titans to run the ball. Tannehill averaged 193.1 passing yards per game this season.
Source: news.google.com