Chris Fallica
Close
ESPN Staff Writer Lead researcher for “College GameDay” since 1996
Voter on ESPN CFB Selection Committee
Steve Coughlin
Close
ESPN Staff Writer Known as “Stanford Steve”
Played college football at Stanford
Producer for SportsCenter with SVP
The college football season is upon us, and that also means the return of vernacular that could seem a little intimidating. Hopefully this will make betting conversations less confusing.
In its simplest form, a point spread represents the expected margin of victory between two teams. Oddsmakers post this betting line prior to a game and the intention is for that number to make the two teams equal. This is essentially the same as a golf handicap. If one team is a four-point favorite, or -4 (since you will eventually subtract four points from its final tally), then that team must not only win the game but it must win the game by five or more points to cash the bet.
While the point spread levels the matchup and makes that wager considered a 50/50 proposition, the money line is solely about which team will win the game. But obviously not all matchups are even, so the money line incorporates odds, and it’s all in relation to $100. For example, for a -200 favorite, you must risk $200 to win $100. For a -150 favorite, you must risk $150 to win $100. Those favored teams are considered better and more likely to win, so thus you must risk more than you win.
On the flip side, the underdog offers enticing odds. By wagering on the underdog, or perceived inferior team, you can win more than you risk. For a +200 underdog, you win $200 for every $100 risked. For a +450 underdog, you win $450 for every $100 risked. Again, that team must win the game outright. We see money line betting more commonly in boxing, MMA, hockey and baseball.
The total, or over/under, is a wager on the total amount of points scored in the game, regardless of which team wins. Sometimes you just have a better feel for game flow and thus can bet over or under the posted total. For example, if you bet over 48, you win if the final score is 49-0, 30-20 or 27-24. The margin or victor does not matter to your wager. The combined amount of points is all that matters.
As you would imagine, numerous variables contribute to the calculations of all these odds. Analytics play a large role and so does public perception. It’s an elaborate process, and since sports are so much more nuanced than fixed odds of casino games, choosing and watching your wager can be that much more exhilarating. — Doug Kezirian
“Stanford Steve” Coughlin and Chris “The Bear” Fallica preview the college football season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Odds and lines are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Props
Will Anderson Jr., LB, Alabama Crimson Tide to win the Heisman (+2200)
Fallica: There were people who thought Anderson was the best player in the country last year when he posted 17.5 sacks and 34.5 tackles for loss. We saw a defensive player finish second last year — Aidan Hutchinson — and with the numbers Anderson posted last year, he could finish one spot better than Hutchinson in 2022. Clearly there are many factors at play. How will voters handle Bryce Young? Will they vote for him two years in a row? Will the trio of C.J. Stroud, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and TreVeyon Henderson cancel each other out? Will USC’s roster rebuild work, and if it does, will we see Caleb Williams become the West Coast candidate? The best numbers — 40 and 50-1 — are long gone, but I’d still take a chance on Anderson at that price.
Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oklahoma Sooners to win the Heisman (+3000)
Stanford Steve: I think Dillon Gabriel is worth a look for Heisman this year. He reunited at Oklahoma with Jeff Lebby, who was his offensive coordinator during his freshman season at UCF. In that year, Gabriel threw for over 3,600 yards and 29 TDs. I think a more mature Gabriel will put up huge numbers with Lebby calling the shots in Norman.
Over/Under bets
Ohio State over 10.5 wins (-250) (DK)
• Tips for betting the ’22 Heisman race
• Guide to potential future fantasy stars
• Win projections: Teams to bet now
• Tips for betting conference champions
• Betting tips for Week 0 and Week 1
• USC most popular early bet to win CFP
• Early tips to bet the national title
PickCenter: Play Pigskin Pick’em
Betting home | Fantasy home
Fallica: The Buckeyes will be a double-digit favorite in every game and should be north of two TDs in most of them. No offense in the nation can score with them, and if reports are correct about the defense looking much improved from last year, it will be hard to see Ohio State losing twice given the Buckeyes face Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan in Columbus.
Washington State over 5 wins (-140)
Stanford Steve: I love the idea of Cameron Ward coming to the Pac-12 from Incarnate Word and showing what he can do with his skill set. I think there are more than five wins on the Cougs’ schedule, seeing as I am not sure how good the teams in the Pac-12 North will be this year. I loved the way Washington State finished last year under head coach Jake Dickert, winning six of its last eight regular-season games.
Georgia over 10.5 wins (-240)
Fallica: I think a lot of people see the road games at South Carolina, Mississippi State and Kentucky as potential spots for the Bulldogs to be upset. But barring a loss in the season opener to Oregon as a 17.5-point favorite, it would take two losses to get beat here. Georgia is 27-2 against the SEC East since 2017, so there’s some perspective. Sure, there are a ton of guys to replace on defense, but Jalen Carter and Kelee Ringo are back, and the offense has a chance to be special and certainly better than it was a year ago. I just don’t see the Dawgs losing twice in the regular season.
South Carolina over 6.5 wins (-120)
Stanford Steve: South Carolina won seven games, including the bowl game last season, and the Gamecocks couldn’t throw the ball down the field. The addition of Spencer Rattler gives them a hell of a lot more options offensively, when you look at the tight end and wide receiver positions. They will be very versatile from a personnel standpoint. I love what head coach Shane Beamer did in his first year, and I think the Gamecocks win more than six games.
South Florida under 4.5 wins (-135)
A daily sports betting news and information show (6-7 p.m. ET, ESPN2) that aims to better serve the millions of sports fans who participate in sports wagering and help educate general sports fans with in-depth analysis. Watch »
Fallica: The Bulls’ two wins last year came against Florida A&M and Temple, which was the worst team in the AAC. Jeff Scott spoke publicly about the team finally being ready to compete, but this defense will need to take massive steps forward to simply be respectable. South Florida allowed opponents to score at least 35 points seven times last year. There is a chance the Bulls go 0-for on the road with games against Florida, Louisville, Cincinnati, Houston, Tulsa and Temple, while BYU, UCF, ECU and SMU visit Raymond James Stadium. I have a hard time seeing this team get five wins.
Indiana Hoosiers under 4 wins (-125)
Stanford Steve: It has gone bad fast in Bloomington … the Hoosiers didn’t win a conference game last season, and I think every team in the division is better than them this year too. I’ll say the Hoosiers win four games or fewer this year.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets under 3.5 wins (-125); under 2.5 ACC wins (-195)
Fallica: There’s been some upheaval on the staff and roster, but I don’t think things will be dramatically better. Not only does Tech’s conference schedule contain Clemson and road trips to Pitt and UNC, but its nonconference slate has Ole Miss, at UCF and at Georgia. If the goal here is to put your team in the worst possible position to have a big season for a staff that needs one, well, mission accomplished.
TCU over 6.5 wins (-150)
Stanford Steve: New head coach Sonny Dykes inherits an offense that has a plethora of options. I do trust he will make the right decision at quarterback. The Horned Frogs also have a solid WR1 in Quentin Johnston, who was first-team All Big-12 last year while tallying only 33 receptions. TCU’s defense can’t be worse than it was last year. I really like the hire of Joe Gillespie as defensive coordinator, and I think he will do wonders for the Horned Frogs. They have a chance to really surprise some folks this year.
Utah State under 7 wins (-115)
Reached CFP – 10th or Lower in Preseason Poll
YearTeamRanking2021MichiganNR2020Notre Dame102018Notre Dame112017Georgia152016Washington142015Clemson122015Oklahoma19
Fallica: I just see a lot of unsustainable things here from last years’ 11-win season. No team won more games after trailing at halftime than Utah State. The Aggies won every road game they played. They also won five games as an underdog and went 4-0 in games decided by four points or less. Washington State is off the schedule, and a trip to Bryant-Denny Stadium rotates on. Feels like coach Blake Anderson, QB Logan Bonner and crew surprised a lot of people in Year 1. This ultimately might wind up pushing on seven, but there are enough reasons in my mind to take a look at the under.
NC State over 8.5 wins (-180)
Stanford Steve: I think this team has a bad taste in its mouth from the way last season ended. The Wolfpack had a chance to be the second team in school history to win 10 games if their bowl game wasn’t canceled. With all the talent they bring back this year, I think head coach Dave Doeren and his team will get to 10 wins and maybe more.
Michigan State under 7.5 wins (+110)
2 Related
Fallica: There’s a chance that last year’s Michigan State team will be the least talented team Mel Tucker will have in East Lansing. The Spartans had numerous close calls in last year’s 10-2 regular season, notably Nebraska, Miami, Indiana and Michigan. Luck with turnovers and close games offset one of the worst pass defenses in the country. How will MSU fare without Kenneth Walker III, who was a huge part of its offense? The schedule really doesn’t do MSU many favors. Washington should be better under new coach Kalen DeBoer. Wisconsin and Minnesota are added to the Spartans’ schedule in place of Northwestern and Purdue. There are road trips to Michigan and Penn State, and of course there’s the game against Ohio State, which was a 49-0 blowout in Columbus a year ago. MSU is in that 7-5/8-4 range and I’ll lean toward the under, making all those MSU fans happy!
Alabama over 10.5 wins (-300)
Fallica: Alabama has lost two regular-season games only once in the past 11 years (2019), and it took one of the greatest offenses ever to do it — LSU — and two pick-sixes by Auburn. You’ve got the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, the best defensive player in the country and a defense that should be scary good. You’re never going to regret backing Bama to win 11 games and I certainly will here.
Duke under 1.5 ACC wins (-240)
Fallica: Duke is 2-21 in its past 23 ACC games and only one of the Blue Devils’ league losses last year came by fewer than 25 points. Kind of tough imagining a team with that track record winning two league games this year when it visits Georgia Tech (a team that it lost to at home last year). The Coastal is far from filled with world beaters, but Duke has a long way to go to reach respectability in the W-L column.
Minnesota over 7.5 wins (-125); over 4.5 Big Ten wins (-135)
Fallica: Not sure how many noticed how well the Gophers’ defense played last year and that they project as a top-10 defense by SP+ this year. Kirk Ciarrocca is back to call plays for a team that was competitive with Ohio State last year, lost star RB Mo Ibrahim to injury, lost to Bowling Green at home, managed six points in a loss to Illinois and lost to Iowa by five. Despite all that, the Gophers still won eight games. There’s no Ohio State or Michigan on the schedule, and it looks like a 3-0 mark in the nonconference slate. Couple that with a 5-4 mark in Big Ten play and we’ll be in business.
Conference bets
North Carolina Tar Heels to win the ACC (+1600)
Fallica: Maybe everyone was a year early on UNC contending in the ACC. Make no mistake, the Tar Heels were horrible in the trenches last year and tackling was optional. Mack Brown turned to his old friend Gene Chizik to fix the defense, and the offense still has playmakers like Josh Downs. As bad as things were last year, UNC lost in OT to ACC champion Pitt and blew a nine-point lead with 1:30 to go against NC State. It’s no guarantee Clemson bounces back to the offensive level we saw under Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson. If the Tigers don’t, one could be with UNC to win the conference, and at the very worst, you’re holding a nice ticket to hedge against in the ACC title game, should the Tar Heels advance from the Coastal.
Ohio State to win Big Ten (-250)
Fallica: Barring the unthinkable of two conference losses, or a home loss to undefeated Michigan in the regular-season finale, the Buckeyes should make a return trip to the Big Ten championship game. In that game, Ohio State will again be a double-digit favorite, as it projects to be in every regular-season game, and will be much bigger on the money line than -250. In that sense, it makes -250 appear to be a bargain. It also would allow a hedge opportunity, if desired, in the Big Ten title game.
Alabama to win SEC West, Georgia to win SEC East, and Ohio State to win Big Ten East (-125) (DK)
Fallica: Of the three, the likeliest to blow up the parlay would be Ohio State, solely because Michigan could be in a position to return to Indianapolis in the final regular-season game. However, that also allows one to take Michigan on the ML in that game if you’re worried about the Wolverines winning in Columbus for the first time since 2000. I think it would be a massive shock if the SEC title game is not a rematch of last year’s game.
Betting tips for Week 0
Wyoming at Illinois
4 p.m., Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Illinois
Line: Illinois (-11)
Money line: Illinois (-430), Wyoming (+330)
Total: 44 points
Fallica’s pick: Illinois (-11)
This is a Wyoming offense that’s pretty much starting over. Gone are its starting QB, top two WRs and leading rusher from an offense that was sporadic at times last year. The Cowboys also suffered a huge loss when Alabama DE transfer Keelan Cox was lost for the year. The Fighting Illini went 5-7 last year in Bret Bielema’s first year, and their defense was surprisingly good, allowing more than 24 points only once in Big Ten play. Barry Lunney was brought in to help an offense that should feature RBs Chase Brown and Josh McCray, along with transfer QB Tommy DeVito, who had a solid year for Syracuse in 2019 before struggling behind a bad O-line in 2020. I think the pieces are in place for the Illini to make a bowl this year, and to do so, a solid start is necessary.
Bear Bytes
Which top-10 team will flop?
In the past four years, 40 teams have been ranked in the preseason top 10. Roughly a quarter of them — nine — have finished the year unranked. Every year but one (2019 when Texas finished 25th) since 2002 there has been at least one team in the preseason top 10 that was unranked at the end of the season. Someone is nearly guaranteed to disappoint, it’s just a matter of seeing who it will be!
Preseason AP top-10 teams unranked in final poll past four years
2021: No. 6 Texas A&M, No. 7 Iowa State, No. 10 North Carolina
2020: No. 6 LSU, No. 7 Penn State, No. 9 Oregon
2019: None
2018: No. 4 Wisconsin, No. 8 Miami, No. 9 Auburn
Playoff predictor?
Last year was the first time since 2017 only one of the eventual CFP teams was ranked in the preseason top four. Last year Alabama was ranked first, Georgia fifth, Cincinnati eighth and Michigan was unranked in the preseason poll. Since 2015 — seven years — every year but one (2019) saw a team reach the playoff from 10th or lower in the preseason poll.
Unranked in Preseason AP Poll – Finished Season in Top 10 Last Three Years
YearTeamPreseason PointsFinal Rank2021Michigan1232021Michigan State092020Northwestern1102019Minnesota710
“Elite” company
With Wake Forest being ranked in the preseason AP poll for the second time in its history, only two current Power 5 schools have been ranked zero times or once in the preseason poll: Vanderbilt (zero times) and Rutgers (once – 2007).
Tropical depression
The Hurricanes are ranked in the preseason poll, but that hasn’t meant good things lately. The past five times the Canes were ranked in the preseason, they finished the year unranked in four of them.
Big Ten NR to top 10?
Fewer Than 10 Points in Preseason Poll, Finished in Top 10 – Since 2012
YearTeamPreseason PointsFinal Rank2021Michigan052021Michigan State092020Northwestern1102019Minnesota7102018Washington State0102017UCF062016Penn State072015Houston082015Iowa092014Georgia Tech082013Auburn022013Missouri052013UCF0102012Texas A&M55
In each of the past three years, a team from the Big Ten that began the season unranked finished in the top 10. Last year the feat was achieved by both Michigan, which reached the CFP after beginning the season unranked, and Michigan State, which won a New Year’s Six game and finished 11-2. Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and Penn State have their eyes on continuing that run this year.
But it’s not just the Big Ten …
In addition, regardless of conference, every year since 2012 at least one team that received fewer than 10 points in the preseason poll finished in the top 10.
Source: www.espn.com