liz lozaESPN
Despite my worst performance of the season in Week 18, this column is extending throughout the postseason. Thank you all for reading each week and engaging on social media. I am looking forward to a few more weeks of popping these accessories with all of you.
As of now, I have hit 49 out of 94 props. Thanks to some intense Virgo moon placement, I’m more than motivated to hit a win percentage of over 55. That starts now! Using ESPN’s database of metrics and some help from stats ace Kyle Soppe, we’re kicking off the New Year with some extra cash.
Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5, 47.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
Pick: Austin Ekeler OVER 51.5 rushing yards (-119)
Fantasy’s RB1 Generally, most of Ekeler’s FF production has come by air. But let’s not pretend it hasn’t been a star on the ground. Averaging 53.8 rushing yards (which is 2.3 yards more than the previous line), Ek’s legs have accounted for 66.5% of the Chargers’ total rushing yards. By those maths, the Bolts would need to run 78 yards for Austin to get the over. Meanwhile, Jacksonville allowed 83.2 rushing yards to opposing RBs during the season.
With a margin of only 1.5 points, a close game is expected. However, that doesn’t mean Los Angeles can’t or won’t establish the race. Not when the team’s RB1 has averaged a 4.89 YPC in the first half of contests (ahead of Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry) since early 2021. Leaning on Austin early is critical to the Chargers’ game plan. And with a surplus of field stretchers and air weapons, it can be more efficient. In fact, Ek has faced a stacked front on just 6.9% (RB47) of his carries while facing a light front on 64.7% (RB6) of his carries.
The Chargers’ run-blocking efficiency has improved over the course of the season, earning a top-three score for this weekend’s matchup. While the Jaguars have thrived as a better-than-average run-stopping unit overall, Jacksonville has slipped down the stretch, posting a defensive efficiency range of 32 (by LBM™) from Weeks 13-18. That bodes well for a slippery running back, who had 1,214 yards created (71.4 per game) after the first scrambled inning.
Watch the Dallas Cowboys take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers only on “Monday Night Football” to cap off Wild Card weekend. Only on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5, 40.5)
Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
Pick: Joe Mixon OVER 54.5 rushing yards (-127)
After last week you’d think I’d learn my lesson, but I’m back at the mixon overs. The Bengals are 9.5-point favorites, setting up a positive game script for Mixon. When Cincy led, Mixon averaged 4.29 YPC. When the team has led by three or more points, that average jumps to 4.48 YPC. If Lamar Jackson were a sure thing, he’d be less optimistic about a Bengals win. However, that is not the case.
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Additionally, Mixon is averaging 14.1 carries. Even if he manages 12 totes in this outing, he’s still good for 50+ rushing yards. In fact, in games in which he has carried the ball at least 12 times, he has averaged 81.3 rushing yards, and has recorded at least 57 rushing yards in each of those games.
Calais Campbell is a bad man and the Ravens are a strong run-stopping unit, having allowed a 3.9 YPC to opposing running backs. But Mixon is benefiting from a light top-10 front-load rate (58.5%) and an improved run-blocking unit (74.6 rating, RB14). He’s also a key in the postseason, having topped the previous line in all four playoff games last season. Mixon may not be ready for a 100-yard effort, but he thinks he’ll punt for 50 rushing yards.
New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3, 48)
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Pick: Isaiah Hodgins OVER 44.5 yards receiving (-115)
Everyone knows I love a sleeper by now. Hodgins emerged as one of my favorite dart pitches over the winter. Playing largely opposite Darius Slayton, the former Bill showed off his ball skills, recording a catch on 15.7% of his routes from Weeks 13-18. For context, that put him just below Stefon Diggs ( 16.3%) and AJ Brown (15.8%) and ahead of Davante Adams (15.3%) and Terry McLaurin (15.1%).
The son of retired NFL fullback James Hodgins, Isaiah proved to be a balm for Daniel Jones, posting zero tackles and a 78.7% reception rate. Ironically, his best game of the year came in Minnesota just three weeks ago. He smoked the Vikings to pace with an 8-89-1 stat line in Week 16. Minnesota may adjust to account for the Oregon State product, but the Vikings’ secondary has been generous with games opposing passing passes, allowing the third-most yards per pass attempt (7.7) and fifth-most yards per completion (11.7).
Relying on the Giants’ receiving corps is a risky endeavor. However, as 3-point underdogs in a game with the highest projected total for the entire roster (48), there should be points available for punters. Rather than lean heavily on the props of Justin Jefferson and Saquon Barkley, I’d rather speculate on a player who isn’t as well known to the masses.
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 45.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, 8:15 pm ET on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.
Pick: Ezekiel Elliott OVER 59.5 total yards (-119)
The spring in Elliot’s step seems to have sprouted, but that doesn’t mean he won’t eat. Zeke can slow down, but he doesn’t stop. In fact, four of his six games with touches of 20+ yards occurred after Thanksgiving, resulting in five consecutive double-digit fantasy efforts (all of which exceeded 60 total yards).
By contrast, Tampa’s run defense faltered in the second half of 2022. The Bucs’ run-stopping unit gave up at least 5.0 YPC to opposing running backs in three of five efforts from Weeks 14-18 ( in SF, in Arizona, in Atlanta) . The team also struggled defending passing running backs, allowing for the highest hit rate on target for opposing QBs when going to the RB position (95.1%).
That lack of defensive consistency sets up well for Zeke’s undeniably constant workload. Elliott has touched the ball at least 17 times in six of his last seven games (excluding Week 18). The fact that Dallas possesses the sixth-highest rush rate alone guarantees a fair amount of opportunities for the team’s backfield. In addition, his role as a blocker keeps him on the field and handles the discards of an often pressured Dak Prescott.
Just 16 touches on his 3.9 yards per touch average gets him over 62 yards from scrimmage. I like those odds.
Pick: Rachaad White OVER 53.5 total yards (-109)
The Buccaneers’ offense ranks first in pass attempts and rushing attempts. White does both. His over/under is also more attainable than Leonard Fournette’s (who started with 71.5 total yards).
White attracted 25 fewer goals than Fournette over the course of the regular season. However, the gap narrowed over the winter, with Fournette averaging just 1.2 looks per game more than White in weeks 9 through 17. White also recorded eight double-digit touch games during that span. In addition, the rookie had more targets and sacks per lane throughout the year.
White may not be as involved as Fournette. However, he is the player on the rise with fresher legs, as evidenced by the fact that he has gained yards on 80.6% of his carries this season. His explosiveness coupled with his versatility sets the stage for 55 total yards without requiring a massive total touchdown. Given that Dallas is among the top five most generous defenses in terms of completion percentage on RB targets (82.4%), as well as yards after receiving catches for RBs (8.3), further justification is made. for White to bat the over.
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Source: news.google.com