liz lozaESPN
The G-Men fell to the Vikings, but the Minnesota defense continued to be generous to New York’s skill-position pool, allowing Daniel Jones and Darius Slayton to get their respective overs. New England tried to keep Ja’Marr Chase in check, but the former LSU standout still managed 79 receiving yards, which was 7.5 yards more than Caesars’ proposed line. An unexpected game script and leg injury worked against Jamaal Williams in week 16.
In the end, three of my five selections were correct. I am motivated to improve on those results in this round. Using ESPN’s database of metrics and a little help from stats ace Kyle Soppe, I’m here to help you clinch the bag in fantasy and on the books.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3, 47.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, US Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Pick: Aaron Rodgers OVER 256.5 passing yards (-133)
Communication errors. Dropped passes. injuries. It’s been months of inefficiency from Rodgers and the Packers’ offense. Green Bay, however, is still in playoff contention and hosts a super-generous Vikings offense in the fantasy finals. That landed Rodgers somewhere in the top 10 heroes, which is particularly felt on the brand this year.
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Rodgers is outside the top 12 quarterbacks in terms of passing yards per game (222). At home, however, he’s managing 10% more passing yards. With Aaron Jones experiencing knee and ankle soreness, Rodgers is likely to lead the charge on Sunday, shooting the ball at least 35 times. If he’s throwing the ball more often and further down the field, at least 250 passing yards can be achieved.
That modest goal becomes even more achievable when you consider the matchup. Minnesota has allowed the most passing yards to QB this season (4,441) and the second-most passing yards in the last four weeks (1,215). Christian Watson’s hip injury is certainly worrisome, but Rodgers doesn’t need an elite arsenal to take advantage of Minny’s secondary. The Vikings have allowed more than 300 passing yards in four of the last five outings. Mac Jones, Mike White, Jared Goff, and Daniel Jones were the opposing headliners in those matchups. Just a row of assassins.
Pick: Kirk Cousins OVER 0.5 interceptions (-108)
Cousins has been a consistent producer for fantasy managers all season, averaging 18 fantasy points. Coupled with one of the fastest offenses in the league (2.24 pace of play, QB4), Cousins averages 39.5 pass attempts (QB3) and 6.7 red zone attempts (QB2). That kind of volume, combined with an elite pass-catching group, translates to overall top-eight fantasy numbers.
While Justin Jefferson has saved Cousins many times, throwing the ball 40 times a game can inevitably lead to mistakes, particularly in a matchup like this.
While this game isn’t in prime time, it’s still a standout matchup with massive postseason implications. I don’t think that sets Kirk up for a clean start, particularly when you note that Green Bay has the second-highest turnover rate of the season. Also, Vegas has the Vikings on the 3 point losers list. Rushing can get any quarterback in trouble, but Cousins has proven more susceptible to miscalls when he’s chasing The Pack. In fact, Captain Kirk has thrown a pick in every loss to Green Bay. His INT rate is also significantly higher outdoors (3.4%) than indoors (1%).
As a Bears fan, I’m yelling SKOL. But as an analyst, I’m betting on messy.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-6, 52.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Ford Field, Detroit
Pick: Jared Goff OVER 278.5 passing yards (-127)
Prepare your lineups for your week 17 fantasy football matchups with analysis of this weekend’s games, last-minute pick-up options, and our take on the biggest stories of the week.
•
The Playbook: Week 17
Mike Clay breaks down every game from every angle, with projections and tips for key players.
• Karabell Fantasy Hot Seat
Mark Andrews leads the list of players making tough lineup decisions in Week 17
• last minute pickups
Matt Bowen offers names to consider if you need a bye week or are broadcasting in a position.
See also: Classification week 17 | daily notes
Goff, league winner? It sounds surprising, but he is currently the fantasy QB10 in general. He also passed for over 300 yards and recorded multiple TD efforts in three of his last four games. As a 6-point favorite against a battered Bears squad, there’s fear he won’t have to air it. However, Goff has cleared 330 passing yards in all four games as a favorite this season (and has been a top four FF QB in each of those outings).
Whether it’s the grit my colleague Daniel Dopp (and resident ESPN Fantasy Lions fan) refers to or the matchups or something else, Goff has been on a roll since Turkey Day. The former Ram has posted a nearly 63% passing rate (11th highest) from Weeks 13-16. Even better, more than 75% of the team’s passing yards have come through the air during that time period. Noting that this game is at Ford Field only improves Goff’s chances of staying on track, as he’s put up 10 more fantasy points per game and a 7.16 aDOT when he’s at home.
The showdown is also plum. Fielding a decimated defense, Chicago ranks 30th in passing yards and receiving yards while ranking 31st in rush rate and sack rate. Given the ease with which opposing offenses have thrown against the Bears, Goff may not even need to get the ball up in the air 30 times to punt up the line.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, 40.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Pick: Chris Godwin OVER 68.5 receiving yards (-119)
Despite a slow start to 2022, Godwin has an ROI for PPR enthusiasts down the stretch, averaging 8.2 receptions and 18 fantasy points since the Bucs’ Week 11 bye. While Tom Brady has struggled to connect with Mike Evans (45% target conversion rate), his chemistry with Godwin has blossomed. In fact, Godwin has maintained a nearly 89% sack rate for the past two weeks (63% sack rate for all other Bucs).
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The last time these two teams met, Godwin drew 13 looks. That’s a lot of bites in the apple! And those bites could turn into bites when faced with a Panthers defense that has allowed the third-most passing yards to receivers in the past month. Godwin has owned the slot in 2022, leading the league with 6.7 slot goals per game.
The key to hitting excess yardage is big plays or a lot of volume, and Godwin is certainly poised to crush the second half of the equation. He figures to flirt with seven receptions, 70 yards and top-12 WR numbers on Sunday.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants (-5.5, 39)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Pick: Saquon Barkley OVER 77.5 rushing yards (-125)
An old-looking Saquon dominated for much of 2022, averaging over 18.4 fantasy points (RB5) and topping 20 fantasy points in back-to-back outings. Featured on 40.2% of championship teams, Barkley has thrived as a powerhouse on virtual teams as well as the Giants’ offense (82.2% chance share, RB3). He plans to start again as the 5.5-point favorite in a very important outing against Indy on Sunday.
The Colts’ run defense was strong to start the season. Since mid-November, however, Indy’s run-stopping unit has slipped, giving up the 10th-most yards to running backs before contact from Weeks 10 through 16. Additionally, Indianapolis has struggled facing running backs, allowing 1.88 yards per carry from Weeks 14-16 (11.2% more than Weeks 1-13). Resolutions are typical on New Year’s Day, but you wouldn’t expect a turnaround from a beleaguered Colts club on the road and facing a RB with 17 runs escaped (RB2) and 86 tackles avoided (RB4) on the season.
Given Barkley’s volume (18.9 carries per game, RB3) coupled with the fact that he’s recorded at least 80 rushing yards (and drawn at least eight receiving passes) in consecutive efforts, the above line feels achievable. Heck, with multiple rushes of 15+ yards in five games this year, he might not even need 18 carries to record 80 rushing yards. In the final year of his contract and with the Giants still in playoff contention, Barkley expects to run hard and far. He is in the top three this weekend.
Pick: Parris Campbell OVER 32.5 receiving yards (-119)
Campbell is my favorite WR sleeper for Week 17. His 4.3 speed and big-play ability have come up regularly post-catch this season (3.3 yards per target). He also ranks ninth in routes executed (520) while recording nearly 77% of his slot snaps. That sets up nicely when he faces a Giants secondary that has allowed the eighth most completion yards per space. Plus, given Nick Foles’ affection for the slot (he’s averaged more yards per attempt to the slot than all other passers over the course of his career), Campbell believes he’ll start 2023 busy and productive.
Follow Liz on Twitter @LizLoza_FF
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