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Josh Allen didn’t throw a pick, but Jared Goff out-produced him, so I’ll take that as a win. Meanwhile, D’Andre Swift’s load was handled and Jeff Wilson went off with an injury. But Adam Thielen stayed busy, Isiah Pacheco stayed on as an extra, and Tyler Boyd kept quiet (before also leaving early).
Ultimately, four of my seven picks were spot on, making for a solid weekend. Let’s push for perfection on this lap. Using ESPN’s database of metrics and a little help from stats ace Kyle Soppe, I’m here to help you clinch the bag in fantasy and on the books.
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 47.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Pick: Michael Pittman OVER 69.5 receiving yards (-123)
Pittman’s jailbreak has been put on hiatus for another year. However, that doesn’t mean he can’t post a top-15 finish in the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Just one game out of an 11-goal effort, Pittman believes he’ll thrive as a ball hoarder again in Minneapolis.
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The Vikings secondary has been a gift to opposing pass catchers, allowing contending receivers to punt 80 yards on 12 separate occasions so far this year. That list of receivers includes everyone from Gabe Davis and DeVonta Smith to Corey Davis and DeVante Parker.
Pittman’s aDOT is down 26.5% this season from last (thanks, Matt Ryan), but as evidenced by the diversity of skills and situations represented in the aforementioned WR catalog, the Vikings are obtainable through a variety of forms and media. For Pittman’s purposes, Minnesota allowed the third-most passing yards to wide receivers on passes under 10 yards (6.6).
Pittman won’t top the previous line with three catches, but he could with six. Given that Indy is expected to chase points and given that Pittman is averaging nine looks per contest (WR11), a 6-72-1 stat line is within reason.
Philadelphia Eagles (-9, 48.5) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Soldier Field, Chicago
Pick: Miles Sanders OVER 68.5 rushing yards (-113)
Prepare your lineups for your week 15 fantasy football matchups with analysis of this weekend’s games, last-minute pick-up options, and our take on the biggest stories of the week.
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It’s hard not to criticize a player who has racked up 311 rushing yards in his last three efforts. When that player faces a defense that ranks in the bottom seven versus position in carries, rushing yards, and YPC, well, it’s a temptation this punter clearly can’t resist.
Interestingly, Philly’s RBs rushed left on nearly 36% of attempts (7th highest). The Bears allow 5.8 YPC to RB when running left (second highest). I can hear Beyonce blessing this matchup. And as Sanders moves to the left, the box he’s facing appears to be light. Thanks to two excellent outfield stretchers, Philly’s RB1 faces six or fewer defenders on more than 61% of his carries (RB7).
The volume is also tilted in Sanders’ favor. Not only is he in the top seven in carries per game (15.7), but as a 9-point favorite, the game script also seems to keep him partying. In fact, Sanders is one of 17 RBs to have handled more than 160 carries all season. Of those 17 running backs, he gained 10-plus yards on 15.2% of those attempts (second only to Nick Chubb at 15.6%).
He has volume, efficiency and matchup all working in his favor this Sunday. That’s pretty good for a guy who told fantasy managers not to draft him in August.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3, 37.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Pick: D’Onta Foreman OVER 66.5 rushing yards
Foreman has been a blessing to virtual backfields, topping 100 rushing yards in four of his last seven games. While Chuba Hubbard’s presence has increased in recent weeks, Foreman remains the Panthers’ go-to grinder, particularly on first downs and in the red box. Lack of work from him in the passing game lowers his ceiling, but he projects to post low RB2 numbers in Week 14.
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It’s no secret why the Panthers want to run the ball, but it’s interesting how much the team relies on the running game. Carolina currently ranks fifth in rush rate. Milking a lead, the Panthers rank second in rush rate. As it happens, the Cardiac Cats are 3-point favorites at home on Sunday. Additionally, Carolina has won its last three games at home, and in each of those contests, Foreman had over 110 rushing yards. All of this suggests a positive playscript and solid volume for Derrick Henry’s former backup.
In terms of matchup, the Steelers have been noticeably harder to beat on the ground than in the air. However, over the past two weeks, the running backs facing Pittsburgh have managed 5.8 yards per carry. The loss of Chris Wormley (knee) doesn’t seem to improve the Steelers’ run-stopping efficiency, setting Foreman up for a big hit.
Dallas Cowboys (-4, 48) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Fla.
Pick: Travis Etienne OVER 61.5 rushing yards (-119)
Etienne has struggled to produce of late, failing to break double-digit fantasy points since the Jaguars’ Week 11 bye. Less than volume, efficiency has largely prevented the second-year RB from posting solid numbers. Against the Cowboys, however, Etienne’s explosiveness — and yards per touch — seem to pick up.
According to LBM, the Jaguars’ run-blocking unit rates significantly better than the team’s pass-blocking unit. While Jacksonville is projected to chase points in Dallas, the Jaguars plan to lean on the rush out of the gate. Given the faster matchup, Eitenne could find a rhythm early. And I think he will succeed in doing it.
The Cowboys’ run defense has crushed the past two weeks, but the offenses they’ve faced (IND and HOU) have been decidedly one-note. That’s not the case with the Jaguars. Jacksonville’s receiving corps is in the top 12 in yards and in the top eight in receptions over 20 yards. The Cowboys will have to account for the Jaguars’ outfield stretchers, which should make for more light boxes for Etienne.
When given more than 2 yards per carry before first contact (getting to the O line), the Clemson product is averaging 6.7 YPC. That stat becomes more illuminating when you look at the Cowboys allowing the seventh-most yards before RB contact (2.8) in Weeks 6-12 (all seven games ahead of the last two mentioned above).
Consider Etienne a top 20 playmaker and expect him to bunt 18 times for just over 80 scrimmage yards.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4, 43.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Pick: Drake London OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-127)
Yes, it’s me. Back to the London pit… except with a rookie QB under center. What could go wrong?
Here is my thought process:
The Falcons averaged 25 pass attempts per game from Weeks 8 through 14. That’s a small sample size and a low number. However, it’s a 15% increase from the first half of the season, in which Marcus Mariota averaged 21.4 pass attempts per contest. So it makes sense (although we’re dealing with Arthur Smith) that given the team’s record, the front office might want to open up the passing game to see what they have in Desmond Ridder.
This is not a new or novel concept. Over the past decade, when a QB made his first start in the second half of the season, he’s also averaged 201.7 passing yards per effort. That’s well below the league average, just 18 fewer yards per game than Mac Jones and just 30 more yards per game than Mariota. Assuming Ridder can muster that minimum then, by extension, London would need to account for 19.8% of the team’s receiving yards. He is currently responsible for 24% of Atlanta’s receiving production.
Finally, the showdown is not as scary as it might seem. Even if Marcus Lattimore returns, he appears to be rusty, having not dressed since Week 5. Meanwhile, the rest of the Saints’ receiving corps has been accessible, allowing an opposing WR to punt 40 yards 23 times during 2022. London might be nothing more than a desperate top-45 flex game on the redesign, but it has the over in this vein.
Source: news.google.com