liz lozaESPN
The week 9 slump was more a stubbed toe (and elbow) in the middle of the night than a hangover at your parents’ house, but it still wasn’t fun. Christian Kirk and Kenneth Walker III gave us two winning tickets. Each will remain in the top 15 plays in week 10.
Speaking of Week 10, let’s make more money! Using ESPN’s metrics database and a little help from stat ace Kyle Soppe, I’m here to help you win in fantasy and on the books.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 44.5)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany
Pick: Tom Brady UNDER 286.5 passing yards (-145)
Why not doubt the GOAT on its (and the NFL’s) debut in Germany? It’s not that he’s 3-0 on foreign soil or has the highest passer rating (125.2) in games played across the pond. Oh wait. While Brady has killed regardless of time zone, he hasn’t been abroad for work since 2017 (Mexico City). And Brady, 45, looks quite different from TB12, 40.
Brady is currently the FF’s QB11 overall, averaging 15.3 fantasy points per game and recording only one multi-touchdown effort all season (Week 4 vs. KC). His O line has gotten a lot of attention for his stat drop. He is creditable, as the Bucs’ pass-blocking unit ranks as one of the two lowest operations and puts up the fifth-toughest matchup (-10) of the week. However, he is not just the offensive line. Brady’s pass receivers have let him down, posting the fourth-highest percentage of catches in the past five weeks.
All of that has led to a massive drop in efficiency for the person who was previously calling with an excellent signal. Brady’s completion percentage has been a pedestrian 62.25% since Week 6 (when he faced a bewildered and banged-up Steelers team). He also ranks 30th in time of possession, which has limited his opportunities and thus his production.
A rebound is unlikely against a Seahawks team that has toughened up of late. Seattle has the third-highest sack rate when not charging. That means Pete Carroll & Company can manipulate Tampa Bay’s already vulnerable line and scare Brady without having to adjust their coverage schemes on the field. Brady’s late-game exploits, as we saw last Sunday, are still a huge part of his game, but the days of 300 yards and two TDs are long gone.
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 51)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes OVER 22.5 rushing yards (-119)
Prepare your lineups for your Week 10 fantasy football matchups with analysis of each of the remaining games to play, last-minute pickup options, and our take on the biggest stories of the weekend.
•
The Playbook: Week 10
Mike Clay breaks down every game from every angle, with projections and tips for key players.
• Fantasy Field Pass
Field Yates on the potential impact of Josh Allen’s injury, how to assess JuJu Smith-Schuster and more.
• fantasy hot seat
Eric Karabell puts Leonard Fournette among the players under the most pressure in Week 10.
See also: Week 10ankings | daily notes
He’s not an elite running back like Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields or Jalen Hurts, but Mahomes is an opportunistic athlete, one who has cleared 10 rushing yards in five of his last six games. He thinks he could top the previous line in a matchup against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed 7.5 YPC to opposing quarterbacks on undesigned runs.
Interestingly, when the Chiefs have won by 20 or more points this season (two games), Mahomes averaged just 2.5 rushing yards per game. In all other instances, he averaged 28.5 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites. Assuming Jacksonville can keep this game relatively close, the over should come.
The Jags are likely to try to do that by putting pressure on Mahomes. In fact, the Jags rank sixth in pressure rating (weeks 2-9). It’s been an effective strategy, as opposing quarterbacks posted the eighth-lowest completion percentage when pressured by Jacksonville. For his part, Mahomes posted a career-low 5.4 YPA when he was pressed this season. So if he’s not a hero with his arm, he’ll most likely make up for it with his legs.
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears (-2.5, 48.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Soldier Field, Chicago
Pick: David Montgomery OVER 55.5 rushing yards (-111)
I am a fan of Khalil Herbert. But I am also realistic. Since Monty returned from injury, he has posted a 70% snap percentage, while Herbert has been on the field for 30% of the team’s snaps. Additionally, Montgomery has posted double-digit rushes in every game and at least two touches in the red zone since Week 5. Herbert may be averaging more yards per touch (6.2) than Monty (4.5), but he’s not the leader of the Bears. That gig belongs to the 25-year-old former Eagle Scout, who is also in the final year of his rookie deal.
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Despite that last stat, Montgomery is having a solid season as a fourth pro, averaging a career-best 2.2 yards per carry after contact. He’s also in one of the highest-running operations in the league, as Chicago is one of only three teams to have called more running plays than passes this season. That sets up nicely for Monty’s Week 10 rushing numbers, as the Bears have also posted a league-high 66.7% rushing rate when leading this season. It also turns out that they are a 2.5-point favorite against Detroit.
The Lions have allowed one touchdown on a league-high 5.9% rushing rate. Additionally, Detroit has gifted career opponents with a 5.0 YPC, which is fifth-highest among units defending the run. Even with Fields and Herbert stealing touches, Montgomery should be well fed in this particular matchup. Consider him a solid RB2 for fantasy purposes.
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 49)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
Prediction: Donovan Peoples-Jones OVER 48.5 receiving yards (-131)
DPJ may not be a fantasy star, but he has been more productive than Michael Pittman or Josh Palmer in the last three weeks. The former Michigan product has posted double-digit fantasy points in four of his last five outings, averaging 11.2 fantasy points per game since Week 4. Additionally, he has cleared four receptions in five straight efforts while reeling in a 35-yard reception on three straight outings.
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Peoples-Jones plans to keep busy in Miami. The Dolphins have allowed 59 points in the last two weeks. Also, Xavien Howard is expected to shadow Amari Cooper, which will give DPJ more conversion opportunities. A 4-52-0 stat line feels more likely than possible, as the Browns are underdogs by 3.5 points in a game with the second-highest projected point total for the week (49). Fantasy managers can flex DPJ, starting with him ahead of Jarvis Landry or Michael Gallup.
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 39)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Nissan Stadium, Nashville
Pick: Greg Dulcich OVER 43.5 receiving yards (-119)
Dulcich has played in three games so far this year. Rookie TE has had at least 44 receiving yards in each effort, averaging more than 60 receiving yards per contest since making his Broncos debut in Week 6. With impressive velocity (4.7) for his size (6 feet 4 inches, 243 pounds), a sneaky part of Dulcich’s fantasy success is his stat-boosting YAC ability.
That’s after the catching prowess is on display in Nashville. The Titans have allowed the third-most fantasy points and the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. In fact, six times this season a TE has gone for 40 yards when he was facing the Titans. The list of names (with the exception of Travis Kelce) isn’t impressive: Mo Alie-Cox, Kylen Granson, Noah Gray, Foster Moreau and Dawson Knox.
Dulcich shares are up, both in FF and IRL. His routes traveled per return steadily increased from 54.2% in Week 6 to 82.4% in Week 8 (which was the sixth highest for the week, ahead of Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert and TJ Hockenson). Plus, the last time we saw the former Bruin, his stat line accounted for nearly 35% of Denver’s receiving yards in the team’s Week 8 win at Jacksonville. Currently available in 53% of ESPN’s fantasy leagues, Dulcich is one of the top 10 plays in a week when Mark Andrews and Darren Waller are unavailable.
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Source: news.google.com