The 2022 MLB postseason continues on Tuesday with the start of the American League Division Series and the National League Division Series, best-of-five rounds that promise to be full of drama and intensity.
In the American League, the Houston Astros take on the Seattle Mariners and the New York Yankees take on the Cleveland Guardians. In the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers face their Southern California rivals, the San Diego Padres, while the Atlanta Braves play the Philadelphia Phillies.
More games means more opportunities to bet. Our experts tackle some of the biggest questions on how bettors should approach all ALDS and NLDS games this week.
Here are the updated odds for the series:
Yankees -250/Guardians +200
Braves -200 / Phillies +165
Astros -260/Mariners +210
Dodgers -250/Padres +200
Note: All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook except where noted
Of the four series, which do you think is the most likely to have an unexpected winner?
Karabel: The Guardians definitely stand out. They don’t score many runs, as we saw this weekend, but their run prevention is excellent, and the Yankees still rely too heavily on an elite hitter (Aaron Judge) and an elite starting pitcher (Gerrit Cole). New York’s bullpen certainly can’t get close to Emmanuel Clase and his friends either. I’m surprised Cleveland’s odds aren’t better. Each of Cleveland’s top three starters had a better ERA than Cole this season. Beat Cole in Game 1 and it could be a quick series.
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hen house: I disagree with Eric about the depth of the Yankees’ rotation, as Néstor Cortés (1.32 ERA in five starts at the end of the season, after the IL) and Luis Severino (1.69 in three starts at the end of the season) of the season, after IL) can go hand in hand. -toe with anyone in the Guardians rotation other than Shane Bieber, in terms of talent. The problem with either, though, is their respective full-season averages of 5.6 and 5.4 innings per start and 88 and 86 pitches per start, rates that tend to drop in the heat of October playoff games. So the Yankees should put a lot of emphasis on a motley relief team that has 13 games of postseason experience (12 from Jonathan Loaisiga and Lou Triviño alone), and I don’t see them holding tight games with the Guardians to the extent that The Rays did. Bottom line: If the Yankees don’t hit, they’re in trouble. And since I suspect they might struggle to hit, I’m picking the Guardians for the best chance of causing an upset.
Conversely, which of the favorites do you think has a better chance of winning in a 3-0 sweep?
(DraftKings odds of a sweep: Braves +400, Astros +310, Yankees +350, Dodgers +360)
Karabel: The Astros’ odds are overwhelming, and they should be. It’s amazing how the Mariners won Game 2 in Toronto, but they will face considerably better pitching in Houston. The Astros are a deep, experienced, well-rounded team and, frankly, just as big, if not bigger, than the Dodgers. The Mariners may have advantages, but I’m not sure they have many in this series.
hen house: A sweep? Not that I see a high probability of any in this round, considering the starting pitching involved, but I’ll say the Braves, if only because I think the opposing Phillies have the least complete roster of any of the remaining eight teams. The Phillies’ defense was easily the worst of any team still standing, and their 4.25 relief ERA was also easily ranked last. The latter is a terrifying reality considering the matchup, as no offense in baseball had a higher weighted on base average (wOBA) against opposing bullpens than the Braves.
Currently, Aaron Judge is the heavy favorite (+400) in DraftKings to hit the most home runs this round of the playoffs. Would you roll with him or, if not, which other player would you plant your flag with?
Karabel: Judge should be the favorite, of course, but take a look at several Astros, too. Not to bother the Mariners, as they’re a big story, but only six teams have allowed more home runs than Seattle this season, and several of their relief pitchers are extreme fly ball options, notably Paul Sewald. Most of those pitchers will face the Astros, and the odds on Yordan Alvarez (+1,100), Alex Bregman (+4,000) and Jeremy Pena (+5,000) look like good deals, especially Pena. He hit three home runs against Seattle during the regular season, one against Robbie Ray and two against Marco Gonzales, and Pena has much better odds than Jose Altuve (+2,500) and Kyle Tucker (+3,000).
hen house: I think there’s something to be said here for which of these series is most likely to go five games, to me, it’s Guardians-Yankees, plus it’s played in the most home run-friendly circumstances, so Judge is a pretty solid bet. For that. But Jose Ramirez for +2200 is a pretty tempting option in his own right, so I’m sticking with him.
We’ve got eight teams left, so we’ll ask again: Which team do you pick to win the World Series at current odds?
Karabel: The Astros have been to the World Series three times in five seasons and have lost two of them, as have the Dodgers. Frankly, Houston’s odds should be closer to the Dodgers, if not better. The Astros’ path back to the World Series looks easier. Go with Houston, but also throw some points on the Braves’ replay. A potential Dodgers-Braves series could really go either way, but these odds tell a very different and surprising story.
hen house: I’m sticking with the Guardians, though lowering their odds, from +3500 to +1800, would surely have me throwing some at the Braves, as their odds (if memory serves) just dropped from +600 to +550 I still think the Braves have about as much of a chance as the Dodgers or Astros to win the World Series, so those are pretty tempting odds. But for me, there’s still no way I’m going to see the Guardians as the remotest possibility of the remaining eight, and I want courage.
carty: I’m sticking with the Phillies at +1100. THE BAT X have thought they are the most underrated big team in baseball all year. The biggest concern is that they probably have the toughest road to the World Series facing Atlanta, (presumably) LA and the Yankees or Astros. But basically with full health now in the postseason, I’ll take those odds for a team that’s almost as good as Atlanta and anyone in the American League. (Unfortunately, no one can match the Dodgers in terms of talent and projection, but you don’t get any value at +260.)
Source: news.google.com