Week 16 of the NFL season begins Thursday with a matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New York Jets (-1.5, 38) from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Jaguars are coming off an upset win over the Cowboys and have won three of four. Meanwhile, the Jets have lost three in a row and four of five.
What can we expect from a betting point of view for Thursday night’s game?
betting analysts doug kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, joe fortenbaugh, anita marks Y erin dolan; sports and fantasy betting analysts eric grumpy Y andre snellings; and ESPN Stats & Information’s Seth WalkerESPN analyst jason fitz and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz provide their best plays for the matchup.
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines unless otherwise noted.
The Jets (-1.5, 38) are favorites over the Jaguars for Thursday night’s game, despite losing three straight. The Jaguars, on the other hand, have won two in a row and are just one game behind the Titans for first place in the AFC South (+120 to win). Do you like Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars doing things on the road in East Rutherford, or can the Jets end their three-game skid and keep their playoff hopes alive?
Brands: give me the jags and points, along with the Jags in a six-point two-team teaser at +7.5. Jacksonville is coming off an impressive overtime win against the Cowboys. Lawrence has been on a roll of late, throwing for 14 touchdowns and just one interception in his past six weeks. Offensively, the Jaguars have averaged over 7 yards per play and looked impressive against the Cowboys defense. The Jets are again starting Zach Wilson, who sports a 42% completion percentage in the red zone, and the Jets defense will likely be without Quinnen Williams for the second week in a row.
Snelling: I will also take the jags with dots. They’re playing a lot better lately and have a much stronger quarterback game right now. The Jets’ best chance is for their defense to keep up a low-scoring game and hope they can squeeze it out late on. The best case scenario for them would be a very close game where points could be key, even in a possible Jets win.
Moody: Jaguars +1.5. Lawrence and the Jaguars have had positive momentum over the last three games, ranking fourth with 399 total yards per game and fourth with 30 points per game. Although New York’s defense is formidable, the Jets have lost their last three games. The Jaguars are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games. It is possible for Jacksonville to win this game outright.
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Trevor Lawrence is coming off a four-TD performance against the Cowboys. David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire
Trevor Lawrence has been on a roll in recent weeks and is coming off a four-touchdown performance in Week 15. He’ll face a Jets defense that has one of the best secondaries in the league with DJ Reed and Sauce Gardner. Do you like Lawrence going over his passing yards (224.5) and touchdowns (1.5) on Thursday night in the cold MetLife Stadium?
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Schatz: Cold MetLife Stadium is actually not going to be very cold for this game! The forecast is for some rain but temperatures in the 40s. That huge blast of cold air that’s going to affect this week’s games doesn’t show up until Friday or even Saturday morning. so give me Lawrence to go over this passing yards accessory.. He’s red hot and has receivers who won’t be covered by either Reed or Gardner, namely Evan Engram at tight end. I also hope the Jets score against a poor Jaguars defense so Jacksonville doesn’t take the ball out of Lawrence’s hands and run out the clock at the end of the game.
Snelling: yes I like it Lawrence will surpass 224.5 passing yards. That’s a relatively modest total, even given the Jets’ strong defense, for a quarterback who has averaged 280.0 yards in his last six games, topping 224.5 yards in five of those games.
Moody: Lawrence has topped 224.5 passing yards in seven of his last 10 games. The Jets’ strong secondary is unlikely to allow Lawrence to throw for 300 yards like he has in three of his last four games, but 224.5 passing yards seems too low. The Jets’ pass rush will be negatively affected by Quinnen Williams’ calf injury. Although Williams is a game time decision, he is clearly not 100%. Lawrence has performed well when he wasn’t under pressure this season. Although it will rain and be cold, high winds are not expected to be a factor.
The Jets and Jaguars are out looking to make the postseason. New York is +400, while Jacksonville is +125. Do you like to take any of these teams with positive odds, and who do you see making a run?
Kezirian: I think there’s a slight value in Jacksonville at +125 but it’s marginal. They will likely need Tennessee to avoid beating Dallas in Week 17 to set up a favorable situation against the Titans at home in Week 18. There are plenty of other scenarios though, so given how Lawrence and Jacksonville are playing right now , this is a team that I would like to support.
Schatz: Our current playoff odds simulation has the Jets winning 25% of the time, which gives the +400 a bit of value if you want to play that. Our numbers believe Zach Wilson is a bit underrated because, while he certainly makes some bad plays, he’s made them while facing the toughest opposing pass defense schedule of any quarterback in the league this season. That’s why we have the Jets’ offense ranked 19th in DVOA despite their doubts at quarterback and the injuries they’ve faced at running back and on the offensive line. We have the Jaguars making the playoffs 44% of the time, which is exactly +125, so there’s no value there.
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Schatz: i will take over 38 despite the quality of the Jets’ defense. The Jets and Jaguars run their offenses at an above-average rate, and the Jaguars currently rank eighth in weighted offensive DVOA. Even the Jets are 19 and they’d be higher, not lower, if you took out the Mike White games. Zach Wilson has his issues, but he’s going against a Jaguars pass defense that currently ranks last in DVOA. And as I said earlier, the weather is not supposed to be that cold.
Brands: Evan Engram over 40.5 yards receiving Y Christian Kirk over 48.5 receiving yards. Engram has become one of Lawrence’s favorite targets over the last three weeks, with 32 targets, 24 receptions and 244 receiving yards. The Jets have one of the best secondaries against wide receivers, but they struggle against tight ends.
Kirk plays 68% of his plays from the slot, and will avoid Willow Gardner for most of the game. Last week, the Jets allowed Lions receivers to surpass 100 combined receiving yards.
Moody: Garrett Wilson over 55.5 receiving yards. Although Garrett Wilson has had more success with Mike White under center than with Zach Wilson, he should still have success against a Jaguars defense that has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game. Garrett Wilson has topped 55 receiving yards and seven targets in four straight games. There is a strong possibility that the trend will continue against the Jaguars.
Dolan: Zonovan Knight over 57.5 rushing yards. Knight has surpassed this mark in three of four games played, averaging 63 rushing yards per game. The Jags defense ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. While the Jags defense is better against the run (ranked 16th) than the pass (ranked 29th), I don’t trust Zach Wilson for obvious reasons. I think the Jets will use Knight in heavy rain and wind, and he’ll step over their rushing support.
Source: news.google.com