Week 10 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday night with an NFC South matchup between the Atlanta Falcons 4-5 (-3, 42.5) and the Carolina Panthers 2-7. What can be expected from a betting point of view for Thursday night’s game?
betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, joe fortenbaugh, anita marks Y Erin Dolan; sports and fantasy betting analysts eric grumpy Y Andre Snellings; and ESPN Stats & Information’s seth walderESPN analyst jason fitz and Outsiders’ Football Aaron Shatz provide your best plays for the matchup.
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines unless otherwise noted.
The Falcons have been one of the surprising stories of the season, currently sharing first place in the NFC South at 4-5. They are a 3-point favorite in Carolina over the Panthers 2-7. Who do you like in this duel?
Fortenbaugh: Carolina +3. How are the Falcons putting 3 points on the road in this matchup? The anticipation line for this matchup was Atlanta -1, which was thrown just before the Panthers lost to the Bengals and the Falcons fell to the Chargers. So why the adjustment of 2 points to the key number of 3? Plus, when these two met just two weeks ago in Atlanta, the Falcons were putting up 4.5. So -4.5 at home and -3 away? That’s too big a number, especially when you consider the fact that in the aforementioned matchup two weeks ago, Carolina outscored Atlanta for 72 total yards in a 3-point overtime loss.
Brands: I love the Falcons in this place. Atlanta runs the ball very well and will get past a Carolina run defense that was just destroyed by Joe Mixon and the Bengals. The Panthers’ defense was on the field for 40 minutes and now, in a brief week of work in the rain and 25 mph winds, they will have to stop Marcus Mariota, Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier. Carolina has yet to score a TD in the first quarter and has only three TDs in 50 offensive drives in the first half of games this season. I will put the -3 with the Dirty BirdsI will play them too (-1) in the first quarter, (-1.5) in the first half Y more than 23.5 total team points.
Dollar: would play the The Falcons team totals more than 23.5 points. The Falcons are averaging 24 points per game, while the Panthers’ defense allows 25 points per game to opponents. These teams met on October 30 and the Falcons put up 37 points in an overtime victory. Since then, the Panthers’ defense ranks 28th against the run, last 10 against the pass, and 27th in total yards allowed per game. The Falcons’ offense can pick up points on a tired Carolina defense.
Create or join an ESPN Fantasy Basketball league today and select your league any time before game one starts every Monday. Your league starts over with 0-0 records for the new matchup period.
Sign up free!
Shatz: I’m going with him Hawks -3 here, even on the road. These teams are roughly equivalent on defense, with the Panthers ranking 28th in DVOA and the Falcons 29th. But there’s a big gap on offense, where the Falcons rank in the top 10 and the Panthers are second from bottom. Remember, offense is more predictive than defense, so the Falcons not only have a huge lead, but that huge lead means more.
Grumpy: I recommend betting under. When two great NFL teams play weekdays, there’s a lot of uncertainty. We have two suboptimal teams playing Thursday night. In total yards per game, Carolina (30) and Atlanta (25) rank near the bottom. The Panthers rank 23rd in points scored per game. This game could also be affected by the weather. The remnants of Hurricane Nicole are likely to bring scattered showers and wind to Bank of America Stadium, which is an outdoor stadium, so teams will have no protection from rain or wind. The under is 4-2 in the Falcons’ last six games and 6-0 in the last six Thursday games, and the under is 7-3 in the Panthers’ last 10 division matchups.
At 4-5, the Falcons are tied with the Bucs for the division lead with eight games remaining. However, the Bucs are -220 to win the division, while the Falcons are +320. Are they worth betting on?
Brands: I already made this bet two weeks ago. atlanta he has the second-easiest schedule strength for the rest of the season, and his running game becomes even more explosive with the return of Patterson. I’m not convinced a win against the Rams will change the Bucs’ season, I’m not convinced an Andy Dalton offense, and the Panthers’ season can’t be over fast enough.
2 related
Shatz: I think the Buccaneers are the clear favorites to win this division. They still rank 10th in DVOA despite the losing record, but our playoff odds simulation says the the value here is with the Falcons +320. Not much value, but we’d put the Falcons closer to +240. Anita is right about the schedule; in fact, by DVOA rather than win-loss record, the Falcons have the easiest remaining schedule, not second-easiest!
Waller: I would bet the Falcons at +320. I agree with Aaron; the Bucs are the favorites, but not favorites to this degree. I don’t think just because Tom Brady led a comeback against the Rams that we should assume the Bucs are back — they still struggled offensively for most of that game. Atlanta’s offense has simply been better. Now going forward offensively, I think it’s close and the Bucs are the best defense by far. But on a one-in-four chance in Atlanta pulling this off? i would take it
The NBA season is here. Sign up for ESPN Fantasy Basketball today! play for free
Is there anything in the prop market that you’re playing in this game?
Brands: I’m totally into Patterson. He should have a monster night against this Panthers defense. Patterson over 51.5 rushing yards (-115) Y anytime TD (even).
Free to play. Create up to 5 entries; 60 prizes valued at $88,500! Make your selections
Dollar: Patterson over 51.5 rushing yards is the right move in this matchup. The Panthers’ defense ranks 28th against the run. Carolina’s defense just gave up five touchdowns and 153 rushing yards to Mixon. In his return to the field last week, Patterson had 13 rushing attempts for 44 yards and two touchdowns. He topped this mark in two of the five games played this season, but keep in mind that he topped his number against the Saints and Seahawks. He didn’t play in a 37-34 overtime win over the Panthers a couple of weeks ago, but the Panthers allowed 167 rushing yards in that game without Patterson on the field.
Snelling: I agree with the love for Patterson, but to change it I will go Patterson over 62.5 total rushing/receiving yards. Patterson could top this total running solo as an explosive running back against a struggling Panthers run defense, but he’s also a great pass catcher/former wide receiver who could convert a single catch for 11-plus yards.
Shatz: I agree the Falcons will run the ball a lot here, and the only thing the Panthers do well is cover opposing No. 1 receivers, where they rank fifth in DVOA. Drake London had just 31 yards in the game two weeks ago, and I’m going with London under 39.5 receiving yards (-119) in this game too.
Grumpy: Allgeier over 31.5 rushing yards. Patterson performed well against the Chargers on Sunday, but Allgeier will continue to be active on the Falcons’ committee. He had 99 rushing yards on 10 attempts against the Chargers. The Falcons are averaging 33.7 rush attempts per game, and that trend should continue Thursday given the weather forecast. The Panthers’ defense has allowed 139.3 rushing yards per game, and Allgeier, who is averaging 4.5 yards per rush, could see 10 or more rushing attempts against Carolina.
Source: news.google.com