Week 10 of Sunday’s NFL slate concludes with the night game between the 5-3 Los Angeles Chargers and the 4-4 (-7, 45.5) San Francisco 49ers from Levi’s Stadium.
So what can we expect from a betting standpoint on Sunday night?
betting analysts doug kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, joe fortenbaugh, anita marks Y erin dolansports and fantasy betting analysts eric grumpy Y andre snellingsESPN Stats and Information Seth WalkerESPN analyst jason fitz and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz provide their best plays for the matchup.
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines unless otherwise noted.
The San Francisco 49ers (-7, 45.5) welcome the Los Angeles Chargers to Levi’s Stadium on Sunday night fresh off their Week 9 bye. The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. , while the 49ers boast a 6-1 ATS record in their last seven home games and the last seven games against a team with a winning record. What do you think about the spread and total of this matchup and who do you think will win this non-conference matchup?
Fortenbaugh: would play the under in this spot The Chargers have defense issues, which is exactly how 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan will want to attack them. This will certainly help bleed the clock, considering the 49ers are ranked 29th in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ pace metric. Meanwhile, the Chargers’ offensive line and receiving units are banged up, which should limit quarterback Justin Herbert’s advantages.
Schatz: There are plenty of reasons to favor the 49ers in this one. Christian McCaffrey against a terrible Chargers run defense, for example. Nick Bosa probably against a practice squad right tackle, Foster Sarell. Austin Ekeler against a 49ers run defense that ranks fourth in DVOA. But the Chargers have a winning record and have played most of their games close, and 7 points is a lot to give them. The 49ers are weak against deep passes, and while the Chargers don’t throw as many deep passes as most other teams, Justin Herbert is good at those passes, and that’s what you throw when you fall behind. I can definitely see a backdoor cover here or a game that is closer than expected late. so i’ll go with chargers +7.
glow: the 49ers could be the best team in the NFC. Yes, I did. I would bet the points at home, coming off halftime against the Chargers. San Diego’s absolutely terrible run defense is in for a long day with McCaffrey now installed as the leading rusher and WR Deebo Samuel returning from injury. Herbert’s mission against the No. 1 defense in the league is made infinitely more difficult due to injuries to his wide receiver. I also think this is a low environment because of the 49ers’ ability to run the ball on offense and suppress what is already a Chargers passing game that lacks explosive playability.
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McCaffrey had three total touchdowns in his last outing against the Rams and is facing a Chargers defense that allowed the Falcons to rack up 202 rushing yards against them last week and are allowing an NFL-worst 5.7 yards per carry. McCaffrey’s career accessories are over or under 77.5 yards and over or under 36.5 receiving yards. Do you think he’ll beat these numbers on Sunday night against Brandon Staley’s team?
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Snelling: I’m taking the on over McCaffrey in both rushing and total yards against the Chargers. His defense is weak enough against the run that he can get past full support yardage on the ground alone, and of course he’s a huge threat in the air as well.
What is your favorite bet for Sunday night?
Schatz: let’s go with San Francisco in the first quarter -2.5. DVOA ranks San Francisco sixth in offense and second in defense in the first quarter of games. We know Kyle Shanahan is good at writing scripts for those opening plays. The Chargers are ranked 25th in offense and 28th in defense in the first quarter.
What is your favorite Sunday night gamer accessory?
Snelling: McCaffrey on 114 rushing/receiving yards. This is arguably the best running back in the league against arguably the worst run defense. And, as a kicker, McCaffrey already has two 80-plus receiving yards and four 50-plus receiving yards games this season, and is always a threat to reach triple figures through the air. The total yardage line can hardly be set high enough for me not to take McCaffrey in this matchup.
Walker: samuel under 50.5 yards receiving (-118). Samuel is still a YAC monster, but quietly his other abilities have been a bit off this year, according to our receiver tracking metrics: His Open Score is a pedestrian 48, and his Catch Score is a pretty awful 33. additional target competition via McCaffrey and I’m willing to fade Samuel here.
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