Week 18 and the NFL regular season concludes Sunday night with an important game between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field (ESPN, 8:20 ET). If the Packers win, they clinch a playoff spot. (The Lions can only make the playoffs if they win and the Seahawks lose to the Rams in the previous game.)
betting analysts Tyler Fulghum, joe fortenbaugh Y anita marks, and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz They offer their views on the games with tips and picks.
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines unless otherwise noted.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-5, 49)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. at Lambeau Field
The Packers and the Lions meet on “Sunday Night Football” in search of the final spot in the NFC playoffs. Both teams are coming off 41-point performances last week. What do you think about the distribution and total of this game and who do you see coming out on top?
Fulghum: Packers -4.5. Aaron Rodgers is 28-4 at Lambeau Field in December/January regular-season games. In a “must win” situation with a playoff spot on the line, I think the Packers finish 5-0 close to the season needed to qualify for the postseason and they do it with a cover. The offense is generally healthy, the defense is playing its best football of the year, and the Lions’ offense isn’t as efficient as it is at home at Ford Field.
Schatz: Lions +4.5. The Packers are hot and seem to have gotten their act together… but the Lions are just as hot. In fact, Detroit is the No. 2 offense in the league based on DVOA over the past six weeks, while Green Bay ranks eighth. Our weighted DVOA ratings have Detroit as the No. 7 team in the league right now, with Green Bay at No. 9. The Lions’ defense isn’t great, but it turns out to be stronger where the Packers’ offense is. is stronger: Above middle, where Detroit ranks second in defensive DVOA, while Rodgers has more pass value up the middle than either side. I’m not asking for a Lions win, but this is closer to a coin toss than the line indicates and I’m happy to take the Lions and the points.
Marks: Lions +4.5. This is a tough play, considering if the Seahawks beat the Rams, the Lions will be playing for nothing. The Packers are in a win-and-enter scenario. I think Dan Campbell will inspire his team to win and finish the season 9-8, but if Seattle wins, the Packers will have more to play for. I have the Packers winning, but the Lions covering, so give me Detroit and the points.
Fortenbaugh: I really want to bet on the Lions because everyone will root for Green Bay, but since Detroit would be eliminated with a Seahawks win over the Rams, I can’t bet on this game right now.
What is your best bet for this game?
Schatz: It’s counterintuitive, but I like being under 49. Yes, these teams are better attacking than defensive and have been better in recent weeks than they were at the beginning of the season. But this is going to be a cold, sub-zero outdoor game between two division rivals. Their last game had just 24 combined points. And don’t forget that Green Bay has the slowest offense in the league this year. A slower pace means fewer points for both teams.
What is your favorite gamer accessory for this game?
Brands: Jamaal Williams anytime TD. Williams has contract incentives heading into this matchup. He is 6 rushing yards shy of 1,000 and has 15 touchdowns. I’ll play the over in carries, rushing yards and anytime TDs for Williams heading into this matchup considering there’s $250K on the line.
Source: news.google.com