Week 5 of the NFL season concludes Monday night with the Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 51.5) hosting the Las Vegas Raiders at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (ESPN, 8:15 ET).
After an exciting Sunday of action, we have one more opportunity to bet on professional football if we wish. So which plays do our analysts like best?
betting analysts joe fortenbaugh Y Tyler Fulghum Y anita Marks, ESPN analyst seth walder sports and fantasy betting analysts andre snellings Y eric grumpyMore Football Outsiders’ Aaron Shatz provide your best plays.
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines unless otherwise noted.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 51.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
The Chiefs enter Monday night’s matchup against the Raiders as favorites. What are your thoughts on the spread and total? Who do you like?
Fortenbaugh: He would open a 6-point teaser with Kansas City that would move the Chiefs from -7 to -1 and close it with the underdog in Thursday night’s game between Chicago and Washington (Week 6) that would move the total from 40 to 46. I don’t think I need much explanation on the latter, considering those offenses as well as what we’ve seen on Thursday nights so far this season, so let me explain the first thing: I need the Chiefs to win by two points at home. Monday night against a Raiders team that hasn’t shown much this season.
Shatz: I like to play the total in this matchup and would go under 51.5. The Chiefs’ offense is very efficient, but it plays at a bit of a slow pace. The Raiders’ offense hasn’t been as good as expected. This is also a split game, which tends to score a bit lower on average. I know both teams have exceeded this number in two of the four games this year, but it’s a pretty high number.
Snelling: I like Bosses -7. The Chiefs owned the Raiders last season, winning both games by a combined score of 89-23. The Chiefs scored at least 41 points in both games and could have scored more had they not taken their foot off the gas. The Chiefs are coming off an excellent game against an extremely tough Buccaneers defense, and the offense looks solid. Meanwhile, the Raiders are coming off their first win, but haven’t looked impressive this season.
Grumpy: Mahomes continues to lead the Chiefs to great success with his excellent game: 1,106 yards, 11 touchdowns, just two interceptions and a 108.4 passer rating. He has also rushed 13 times for 64 yards. If Mahomes continues to play at an elite level (and I think he will), the Chiefs will make up the difference. The Chiefs’ defense also needs to stop the run and force the Raiders into mistakes. Last season, the Chiefs annihilated the Raiders twice. They will do it again. In their last 15 games, the Chiefs are 10-5 against the spread. Plus, the lead is 9-3 in Kansas City’s last 12 games.
Brands: This game can go one of two ways: KC crushing the Raiders like they normally do, averaging 35 points per game, or the Raiders keeping them close with a commitment to running the ball and a new defensive strategy. Las Vegas will get Hunter Renfrow back, but it will still be a tall order to keep up with the Mahomes. I have KC winning by TD.
Patrick Mahomes currently has the second best odds to win the MVP (+500) behind Josh Allen. Mahomes has dominated the Raiders in the past. What do you think about his MVP chances, as well as his passing yards (276.5) and TD (2.5) accessories for Monday?
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Shatz: Mahomes was my best bet for MVP before the season started, and I don’t see any reason to change now. He leads all quarterbacks in pass value by Football Outsiders’ DYAR and is second in ESPN’s QBR. There are a lot of good candidates this year, and certainly Lamar Jackson is the leader because of the way he has led the Baltimore Ravens, but Mahomes remains the best long-term bet.
fulgo: I wouldn’t bet against Mahomes in a prime-time game, at home, against the Raiders. The Chiefs are favored for a touchdown. The total is north of 50. If I see those peripherals, I have to imagine that Mahomes is going to put on a show. It’s over or over for me, and I particularly love the price of betting. on 2.5 TD passes (+136).
Snelling: I’d say Mahomes is in pole position for MVP right now. Allen has been impressive, but the narrative of Mahomes keeping the Chiefs on top after Tyreek Hill’s departure is the kind of story that wins MVP.
As for Monday, I like Mahomes for on 276.5 passing yards. The Raiders have been slightly below average in passing yards allowed (20th in the NFL), 1 yard ahead of the Cardinals, the only defense this season that has allowed Mahomes more than 276.5 yards passing. Mahomes has sunk in three straight games, but against some really strong defenses, including last week at Tampa Bay. He thinks he should play a big game Monday night against a division rival that he has historically had solid games against.
Grumpy: Mahomes has a great chance to win MVP. With his excellent playmaking and his excellent accuracy, he has overcome the talent limitations of his WR room. Hill’s absence hasn’t affected the Chiefs’ offense. Maintaining positive momentum is key for Mahomes and the Chiefs. As for the Raiders’ secondary, Mahomes should gut it. Even with a partially torn bib near his right shoulder, Russell Wilson was able to throw for 237 yards and two touchdowns against Las Vegas this season and, in two games last season, Mahomes threw for 664 yards and completed 74% of his passes against Las Vegas. Las Vegas. Raiders. This time around, Mahomes should have plenty of time to shoot downfield thanks to a solid offensive line. That said, Mahomes will not throw more than 2.5 touchdowns.
Waller: I think I’m buying Mahomes’ MVP odds at that price. From a storytelling perspective, it just fits: After losing Tyreek Hill, Mahomes still led the Chiefs to a runaway divisional crown in what at least we all thought was the NFL’s equivalent of the pool of death: the AFC. West. Of course, he still has to go out and do it. But if there’s one thing that can feel good about predicting in football, it’s Mahomes producing and producing efficiently.
The Chiefs are allowing 65.8 rushing yards per game, the fewest in the NFL. Josh Jacobs has already rushed for 336 yards this season. His career accessory is listed at 60.5 yards, with a TD rate of -107. Do you think the Raiders start Jacobs on Monday or Derek Carr and Davante Adams air him out to try and get the win?
Shatz: Kansas City’s run defense has been surprisingly good this season, as it has been a weakness for the Chiefs for so long. However, the Raiders’ offensive line has also gotten a nice boost. The Raiders are currently second in adjusted rushing yards and ninth in career block win rate. Blocking has been particularly strong on runs to the right, as the Raiders are No. 1 in ALY in runs listed at right tackle and right end.
I think the Raiders can get Jacobs going, but the question is for how long. I’d stay away from that plus/minus 60.5 yards because there’s a good chance the Raiders will fall behind soon enough to get Jacobs out of the game, even if he’s running efficiently.
fulgo: I have to eat some raven at Jacobs. He was someone I was fading to this season (new regimen, additional competition in the backfield and the fact that the Raiders refused to sign his fifth-year option), but he’s been amazing. Not only is the production there, but he’s running better than all but a few running backs in the league. That said, I would play under 60.5 rushing yards on Monday night. Not only is the Chiefs’ run defense strong, but Mahomes is likely to put the Raiders in a negative game script quickly, thereby taking away running opportunities from Jacobs while Las Vegas plays from behind.
Brands: I think Josh McDaniel’s strategy will be to run the ball in an effort to eat up time of possession and keep Mahomes off the field. But KC’s run defense is outstanding. They have limited James Connor, Austin Ekeler, Jonathan Taylor and Leonard Fournette to a combined 135 rushing yards. He would play short in rushing for Jacobs. KC’s pass defense is ranked 29th against No. 1 WR opponents. 6.5+ receptions and 75.5+ receiving yards are the prop bets I’m playing for Adams.
What’s your best bet for Monday night’s game?
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Fortenbaugh: Jacobs on 19.5 receiving yards. He is averaging 22.5 receiving yards per game this season and has excelled more in the passing game the past two games, recording 11 targets that resulted in 10 receptions for 62 yards. The key here, however, is Kansas City’s defense, which gives up more goals (48), receptions (40) and receiving yards (277) to opposing running backs than any other team in the league. This is not an anomaly, as the Chiefs also ranked in the top five in the NFL in those three categories last season.
fulgo: Jacobs under 84.5 rushing yards + receiving. Jacobs is in danger of missing out on a chance in this game if the Raiders fall behind the Chiefs on the road. Kansas City’s run defense has been very good this season, and Jacobs doesn’t often get involved in the passing game.
Grumpy: adams on 76.5 receiving yards. This season, Adams has averaged 11.7 goals per game. He will face Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed on Monday. Sneed has struggled in coverage, allowing 21 receptions on 27 targets. To keep up with the Chiefs’ high-octane offense, the Raiders will have to rely heavily on the passing game, so the volume should be there.
Brands: Carlson on 1.5 field goals (+105). Carlson is 12-for-12 this season. The Raiders have scored a TD in just 20% of their drives, and they are one of the worst teams in the red zone this season, ranking 27th in TD scoring rate inside the 20-yard line.
Waller: Not the funniest bet in the world but Carlos Dunlap under 0.75 sacks at -295 at DraftKings. My model is priced right -529. Dunlap has a rim pass rush win rate of just 10%, well below the league average of 16%, and has only been on the field and rushed the passer on 32% of opponents this season.
Source: news.google.com