The wild card round concludes Monday night with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 45.5) at Raymond James Stadium on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+.
Tom Brady is undefeated against the Cowboys in his career (7-0). And Dallas, though a favorite, hasn’t won on the road in the playoffs since 1993.
So what is worth looking at from a betting perspective? And what are the best plays to help you make smart betting decisions?
betting analysts doug kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, joe fortenbaugh, anita marks Y erin dolansports and fantasy betting analysts eric grumpy Y andre snellingsESPN Stats and Information Seth Walker and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz They offer their views on the games with tips and picks.
Note: Lines are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
In the ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ Wild Card matchup on Monday night, the Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 45.5) are the road favorites against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs dominated and won 19-3 in Week 1, but now they are different teams. Do you take Brady and the points or stay with the Cowboys?
Kezirian: I am taking less than 45.5. While the Cowboys’ defense has slipped a bit in recent weeks, it still ranks in the top eight in efficiency, with the Bucs ranking even higher. Tampa also continues to battle injuries on the offensive line, which will limit Brady’s effectiveness. Also, I like to use the Bucs +8.5 as a teaser leg. I don’t anticipate Dallas beating Tampa, and the Bucs can win outright as well.
Schatz: I’ll take the Cowboys -2.5 on this one, given all the problems the Buccaneers have had in the second half of the season. The Cowboys finished the year sixth in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings, while Tampa Bay finished 17th. We know Dallas’ pass defense hasn’t been as good in recent weeks, but Tampa Bay’s pass defense it has decreased even more than that of the Cowboys. In the first half of the season, Dallas ranked third in DVOA pass defense and Tampa Bay was sixth. In the second half of the season, Dallas was ranked 18th, but Tampa Bay is 28th. Also, in that Week 1 game, the Buccaneers ran past the Cowboys, and then their running game was shut down for complete for the rest of the year. I wouldn’t expect Tampa to have much success on the field in this contest.
Walker: I’ll take the bass at 45.5. I worry about both offensive lines in this game, particularly the extreme mismatch between Micah Parsons and Donovan Smith. Regardless, the Bucs have been a below-average offense all year. And while I think Dak Prescott’s extremely poor Week 18 game was unique, if it’s not, I’ll benefit from that here as well.
Snelling: I will also give up the points and take the Cowboys. The narrative of Brady as the hero of the postseason is powerful, but we’ve seen the Bucs play extremely mediocre for months. If it weren’t for Brady’s heroism, they’d be a well-under-.500 team. The Cowboys, even given their recent struggles, are a very strong team. And the leadership is veteran and playoff-tested. They should take care of business.
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Brands: I like the Bucs at home. The Cowboys have been looking horrible lately. They were able to muster just 182 total yards and six points against the Commanders last week, and Dak keeps throwing the ball to his opponents (15 INTs in 12 games). The Cowboys defense has given up more than 27 points per game to Gardner Minshew, Joshua Dobbs and Sam Howell. What do you think Brady has prepared? The Bucs’ defense is healthier, and Dallas should have a hard time running the ball.
Grumpy: Even though Tampa Bay has been underperforming all season, I’ll take the Buccaneers and the points at home. Brady has plenty of postseason experience and knows what it takes to win. With the Cowboys’ secondary really struggling late in the season, Tampa Bay needs to get Mike Evans and Chris Godwin involved early on. Even though the Buccaneers defeated Dallas in Week 1, they are just 2-7-1 against the spread in their last 10 home games. With Prescott’s recent struggles and the Buccaneers’ defense improving now that he’s healthy, it would be surprising to see a change in his performance on the road. The Buccaneers are in a position to win this game outright.
Will Dak Prescott end Dallas’ road playoff drought or will Tom Brady continue his dominance of the Cowboys? Ron Jenkins/AP Photo
Tom Brady is playing in his 48th career playoff game and has averaged 276.1 passing yards per game in the regular season. He’s also thrown at least one touchdown pass in 16 of his last 17 games and has thrown multiple TD passes six times. His passing accessories for Monday night are 273.5 yards and 1.5 TDs. Do you see him going above or below these totals?
Schatz: I’m comfortable with Brady’s excess passing yards in this game because no pass defense has been strong in recent weeks. However, Dallas is still the stronger offense, which means Brady is more likely to pass a lot in the second half to try to make up the deficit.
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Walker: I’m going to go under (but compare, because there are lines higher than this) here as well for the same reason I mentioned above: Dallas’ pressure on the Bucs’ offensive line. I think that will force Brady to get the ball out of his hands quickly for short passes and also encourage OC Byron Leftwich to run the ball. Both work in favor of the unders.
Snelling: I’ll take a side gate and take Brady over 42.5 pass attempts. Prior to his abbreviated appearance in the season finale, Brady had at least 43 pass attempts in six straight games averaging 48.2 attempts per game during that span.
Grumpy: I’m very optimistic that Brady will surpass 273.5 passing yards. He has passed for 273.5 passing yards in 77.8% of his games this season. Brady leads the league with 490 completions and 733 attempts. Plus, he has a solid record against the Cowboys in his career. Brady is 7-0 against them and averages 277.8 passing yards per game.
Dak Prescott’s passing support is 246.5 yards, eight yards more than his season average of 238.3 yards per game. He has thrown over his pass support in eight of 11 games this season. Do you see him going again on Monday night?
Grumpy: There’s a strong chance Prescott will top 246.5 passing yards. Prescott has surpassed that number in four straight games before the Cowboys’ game against the Commanders in Week 18. Prescott has averaged 257.1 passing yards per game in his career. On the wild card slate, this accessory is a good value.
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What is your favorite gamer accessory for Cowboys vs. Buccaneers?
Schatz: Tampa Bay ranks 24th in DVOA against tight ends, so let’s take Dalton Schultz with 39.5+ receiving yards (-117). Schultz had 62 yards in the first meeting between these teams in Week 1.
Brands: Dak has 15 INT in 12 games, so what’s one more? Give me Prescott throwing a pick at -175.
Grumpy: My favorite accessory in this game is Mike Evans with over 63.5 receiving yards. The Buccaneers would do well to move him to get the best matchups. Evans hopes to face All-Pro cornerback Trevon Diggs, who tends to line up on the right side of defense a high percentage of the time. This season, Evans has averaged 8.8 goals and 93.8 receiving yards at home. He’ll be busy against the Cowboys.
What is your favorite best Monday night bet?
Fortenbaugh: Less than 45.5 points. Tampa ranks 25th in scoring and has recorded 30 or more points in just two of 17 games this season. That’s a relatively low offensive ceiling, especially when you consider that Dallas is facing this depleted Buccaneers offensive line. On the other hand, I don’t trust the Dak Prescott turnover machine and Dallas offense to move the ball consistently against a solid Tampa defense. This game must be routine.
Brands: Tony Pollard over 47.5 rushing yards (-115). Teams find success running the ball outside the Bucs’ defensive line (103 outside carries have averaged 5.4 yards per carry against Tampa). That’s Pollard’s wheelhouse, more so than Ezekiel Elliott’s. If the Cowboys are going to succeed in their running game, it will be with Pollard over Zeke.
Source: news.google.com