The AFC-leading Chiefs look to keep their five-game winning streak alive as they travel to Paul Brown Stadium to face the 7-4 Bengals in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS). Kansas City enters Week 13 off the back of a 26-10 win over the depleted Rams, while Cincinnati posted an impressive 20-16 road win over the AFC South-leading Titans.
Cincinnati currently rides a two-game winning streak over Kansas City, sweeping both meetings last season. While that’s a very small sample size, Joe Burrow has yet to lose to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, and he’s looking to become the first quarterback to beat Mahomes three straight times.
Can Burrow maintain his unbeaten record against Kansas City or will Mahomes show the nation why he’s the favorite for MVP?
NFL PICKS OF THE WEEK 13: Against the spread | straight up
For those looking for a play, we’ll give you all the information you need before betting on Bengals-Chiefs, including up-to-date BetMGM odds, tips and our prediction for this week 13 afternoon matchup.
Bengals vs. Odds Chiefs for NFL Week 13
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
spread: Bosses -2.5 (-110); Bengals +2.5 (-110)
Below: 53
money line: Bosses -135; Bengalis +110
In preseason preview lines, Cincinnati and Kansas City were rated pick ’em in this contest. With the Chiefs sweeping the AFC West, they reopened as three-point favorites on the road last week, but have since bid as 2.5-point favorites. The current total of 53 is the highest/lowest on the table in week 13 and has been raised slightly from an initial number of 51.
MORE WEEK 13 NFL: Odds, spreads
All-time series Bengals vs. chiefs
The Bengals lead the all-time series over the Chiefs with an overall record of 17-14. As we mentioned in the introduction, Cincinnati is on a two-game winning streak over Kansas City. The Bengals posted a 34-31 victory over the Chiefs in Week 17 and followed that up with a 27-24 overtime victory in last season’s AFC Championship game. Kansas City’s last win in this series came in October 2018 in a 45-10 loss to the Bengals, then led by Andy Dalton.
Three trends to know
— The Bengals sit in a three-way tie with the Giants and Titans, sporting an NFL-best 72.7 percent coverage rate (8-3 ATS) covering in three straight games.
— While the Chiefs have one of the strongest offenses, four of their last six games have fallen UNDER total.
— According to BetQL, “Under Zac Taylor, the Bengals are also 8-1 ATS against teams averaging at least 7.5 yards per pass attempt, which the Chiefs are surely doing behind MVP leader Patrick Mahomes.”
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Three things to keep in mind
Kansas City’s ability to limit turnovers
Early turnovers undid the Chiefs in last season’s AFC Championship, costing them a chance to return to a third straight Super Bowl. Mahomes threw a momentum-changing interception late in the third quarter to give the Bengals further down field position 21-13. Later, Mahomes followed with an interception on the first possession of overtime that gave the Bengals an excellent opportunity to advance to the Super Bowl.
Last week, the Chiefs also committed two turnovers, but with the Rams struggling to generate a consistent offense, Skyy Moore’s missed punt and Mahomes’ red zone interception didn’t come back to haunt them. Cincinnati is capable of making turnovers chase their opponents like they did in the AFC Championship last season.
The return of Ja’Marr Chase
Chase tends to return to action this Sunday, missing the Bengals’ last four games with a hip injury. His return is a much-needed boost to an already dangerous Cincinnati offense. Chase’s ability to dominate in the red zone (eight red zone receptions) and take pressure off fellow WR Tee Higgins makes Burrow’s job that much easier. Chase also had the best game of his career against the Chiefs in Week 17 of last season, racking up 266 receiving yards and three TDs on 11 receptions. Even if Chase is less than 100 percent, he’ll be a tough cover for the Kansas City secondary.
bosses pass rush
Kansas City obviously needs to put pressure on Burrow, and they may put a lot of pressure on him on Sunday. The Bengals’ offensive line still ranks in the bottom third of the league based on PFF pass blocking rating (60.6), and the Chiefs’ defensive line sports the 10th-highest passing rush rating (73.8). Like most quarterbacks, Burrow has his lowest completion percentage under pressure (53.3 percent), so winning at scrimmage is crucial.
Statistics that matter
26 games. That’s the current winning streak for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in November and December games, the longest November-December winning streak by any team in NFL history. Kansas City’s last loss during those two months came when they were outscored 35-32 by the Titans in 2019.
Bengals vs. Prediction chiefs
Another classic matchup between these two teams awaits us. Considering the game opened to pick ’em and is now at 2.5, some of the line’s value may actually lie with the Bengals. Even though we’re not getting the best of the number, it’s hard to bet against the MVP favorite at a time when he’s traditionally dominated. We predict Kansas City’s ability to avoid costly turnovers results in their sixth straight win, ending their two-game skid against the reigning AFC champions.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 31, Bengals 27. Kansas City (-2.5) cover the spread with the game running ON the total (53).
Source: news.google.com