Bills at the Patriots on Thursday night

Week 11 of the NFL season begins Thursday with an AFC East matchup between the Buffalo Bills (-4, 43.5) and the New England Patriots from Gillette Stadium. The Bills have won two straight and are tied with the Dolphins for the top spot in the East at 8-3. New England is in last place and is coming off a loss to the Vikings, but is still just two games shy of 6-5.

What can we expect from a betting point of view for Thursday night’s game?

betting analysts doug kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, joe fortenbaugh, anita marks Y erin dolan; sports and fantasy betting analysts eric grumpy Y andre snellings; and ESPN Stats & Information’s Seth WalkerESPN analyst jason fitz and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz provide their best plays for the matchup.

Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines unless otherwise noted.

The Patriots sit last in the AFC East, but are only two games behind Buffalo and Miami. Who do you like in this game (Bills -3.5, 43.5) and who would you pick in a tight division race featuring the Dolphins (+240 to win the AFC East), Bills (-230), Jets (+1500) and Patriots? (+3500) Is everyone on the hunt?

Kezirian: For me there are too many moving parts right now to find value in a one way betting market. I’m concerned about the health of Josh Allen’s elbow, and obviously the other three teams are exceeding preseason expectations. It’s hard to see an edge.

Fortenbaugh: I don’t see anything wrong with taking a photo in the Dolphins at +240, considering that it is an implied probability of only 29.4 percent. So ask yourself this: Do you think Miami has a better than 29% chance of winning the division? The Dolphins are 8-3 and have the tiebreaker over Buffalo. Plus, their once daunting end-of-season schedule doesn’t look so bad anymore now that the Chargers and Packers have turned out to be average football teams at best.

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Schatz: give me the bills in this game, as they are still the No. 1 team in the league by DVOA. The Patriots are 11th, but they’re 25th in offense and we know that offense (where Buffalo ranks sixth) is more predictive than defense going forward. We also know that the Patriots specifically have trouble with rushing, mobile quarterbacks like Josh Allen. As for the odds of winning the division, the Jets and Patriots have a bit of value compared to the Football Outsiders playoff simulation, but it’s not much.

Brands: This game will be closer than most people expect. Mac Jones is coming off his best game of the season against the Vikings, and Josh Allen is still not 100% with his elbow injury. The Pats have one of the best red zone defenses in the league, and the Bills struggle to capitalize on scoring red zone touchdowns. I like the Pats getting the 3.5 points. I’ll use them in a two-team six-point teaser, and like the bass at 43.5.

Josh Allen has thrown for 622 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions while adding 130 rushing yards in his last two meetings with the Patriots. Do you expect more of the same and throw something on it to win the MVP (+1200)?

Dolan: I expect Allen to throw a pick since he’s tied with Davis Mills for most interceptions (11) this season, but the line is too juicy. So this may be a little reckless, but I would do a Parlay from the same game and combine an interception from Mac Jones and Allen at +190. Jones must throw a pick after a three-game drought without an interception, but he had at least one pick in his first five games of the season with a total of seven in that span. The Bills have 13 defensive interceptions (tied for second), while the Patriots have 12 defensive interceptions (tied for third). I expect both QBs to make mistakes.

Schatz: The Patriots had a strong pass defense last year (third in DVOA) and Allen has shredded it in the past two meetings between these teams. So I think he’ll do well against this year’s strong pass defense, which is also third in DVOA. But in particular, I’m looking for rushing yards. The Pats allowed 110 rushing yards to Lamar Jackson, 79 to Justin Fields and 39 to Sam Ehlinger. Sam Ehlinger! happy to play Allen over 42.5 rushing yardseven at -137.

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These teams have yet to meet this season. The Bills (0-2 in division play) have won the last two meetings and four of five over the Patriots (2-1 in division play). How do you see the series of the season?

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Kezirian: I like it New England and the points. Strong money came to the Patriots +4 which moved the number to 3.5. This is Buffalo’s third road game in the last 12 days. Add that to Allen’s elbow problem and I think the right side is New England. Buffalo’s defense has been unimpressive of late. It’s hard for one of the best teams to play like one for all 18 weeks. In a season of peaks and valleys, this feels like a valley right now for the Bills.

Schatz: Mathematically, the odds favor a division series split, but I think the Bills are matched up particularly well with the Patriots, not just because of Allen’s mobility, but because Gabriel Davis, Stefon Diggs and Isaiah McKenzie can stretch all levels of the league. pass defense. . I expect the Bills to sweep both games. Our playoff odds simulation gives the Patriots just a 25% chance of making the postseason if they lose both games to the Bills compared to 56% if they split and 86% if they somehow win both.

Is there anything else you like or are playing in this matchup?

Dolan: Nick Folk over 1.5 field goals made. New England ranks 31st in red zone efficiency at 38.7%, while the Bills are good at defending the red zone at 48.6% (4th best rate in the league). The Patriots went 0-3 in red zone touchdown opportunities on Thanksgiving. This is a theme that will continue against the Bills. Folk has made 1.5+ field goals in five of 11 games played this season, but the Patriots will continue to settle for field goals.

Schatz: Rhamondre Stevenson over 35.5 receiving yards (-129). The Bills rank 21st in DVOA against passes to running backs and Stevenson has a remarkable 26% target share in the Patriots’ last five games.

Grumpy: Hunter Henry over 24.5 yards receiving. The Bills rank second in the league in total yards per game (415.9) and points per game (28.1). The Patriots will have to score points and Henry could play a key role in helping New England move the chains. He is coming off a game in which he had a season-high 63 receiving yards. The Bills allow the fifth most targets per game to tight ends. Henry has had five games this season in which he’s had four or more targets and he’s had 50 or more receiving yards in four of them. Henry could have a lot of success at receiver against a Bills defense without Tremaine Edmunds.

Marks: Rhamondre Stevenson over 60.5 rushing yards, 35.5 receiving yards, 4.5 receptions. Damien Harris is not expected to be active on Thursday night, so Stevenson will be the standout rusher, as well as 35.5+ receiving yards. He has 39 targets for 273 yards in his last five games. I also like Isaiah McKenzie over 32.5 receiving yards. McKenzie had a great game last time he faced the Patriots, and with all the attention on Stefon Diggs, he should have a good goal percentage Thursday night.

Source: news.google.com