Week 12 of the NFL season concludes Monday night with the Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 39.5) hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers at Lucas Oil Stadium (ESPN, 8:15 ET).
After an exciting Sunday of action, we have one more opportunity this week to bet on professional soccer. So which plays do our analysts like best?
betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Anita Marks Y Joe Fortenbaugh, d.antasy and sports betting analyst eric grumpyESPN Stats and Information Seth Walker, and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz provide their best plays for the matchup.
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines unless otherwise noted.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 39.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, at Lucas Oil Stadium
The Colts haven’t beaten the Steelers since 2008, when Peyton Manning was their quarterback. Jeff Saturday has covered the spread in the first two games of his head coaching career. Can Saturday’s Colts do it again on Monday, or will Mike Tomlin (3-4-1 ATS this season) pull off the upset?
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Fortenbaugh: Pittsburgh or pass is the way I see it. Saturday certainly exceeded expectations in his first two games as an NFL head coach, but there’s a big difference between catching points (+4.5 in Las Vegas, +6.5 vs. Philadelphia) and putting up points. Also, I’m not so sure this Colts team is worth backing from the favorite position.
Schatz: I also go with pittsburgh in this one as the underdog. The Colts are the worst offense in the league by our DVOA ratings and would still be the worst offense even if we scrapped the two games started by Sam Ehlinger. Pittsburgh’s offense isn’t anything special, but the Steelers have clearly been the better team this year, play-for-play. The Colts have had a slightly better defense than Pittsburgh, but that was a TJ Watt-less Pittsburgh defense for most of the year.
Kezirian: i am endorsing the foals to -2.5 or better. By no means do I expect this to be a rocking chair winner, but ultimately Indianapolis should make the necessary plays at home. As we saw last week, Pittsburgh has a limited offense with rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett. The Steelers have had a couple of good scoring drives, but that kind of production is unsustainable. I realize the Colts have offensive challenges as well, but they can run the ball effectively. Dealing with Watt worries me because he can really change the game, but I feel like the Colts will get a cover.
Brands: I will go with him under. Neither of these teams does much offensively, both scoring on just 13% of offensive possessions and averaging less than 30 yards per drive. Pickett is still learning the position and Matt Ryan is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.
Withdraw your parlay too soon? Getting burned on a last second play? Come feel sorry for Jason Fitz and his bad beats of the week.
The Colts have had a lot of success on the field in recent weeks with Jonathan Taylor finally healthy. Taylor, who rushed for 84 yards and a score on 22 carries last week, faces a Steelers defense that allows 103.4 rushing yards per game. His career bonus currently sits at 86.5 yards. Do you like Taylor having a big night or will Pittsburgh shut him down and force Matt Ryan to beat them?
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Schatz: I don’t think Pittsburgh will completely shut down Taylor, but I do like that they keep him under this fixture. Pittsburgh ranks seventh in DVOA run defense and the Colts are last in run offense. The problem here is less Taylor and more the offensive line, which hasn’t been as strong as it has been in years past. Our projections suggest a 66% chance Taylor will leave. under 86.5 yards.
Is there anything else you like or are playing in this matchup?
Fortenbaugh: i’m going with ryan Yes to throw an interception at -127. After a mirage of a performance in Las Vegas two weeks ago, Ryan was back where he started last Sunday when he took four sacks against the Eagles averaging 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Granted, Philly didn’t have an interception on that one, but all he did was help us get a better price in this situation. Keep in mind that Pittsburgh’s defense currently ranks third in the NFL in interceptions with 12.
Walker: My choice is Alex Highsmith on 0.75 sacks (+135 on DraftKings). The break-even point at +135 is 42.6%, and my sack model predicts a 48% chance that Highsmith will record 1.0 sacks or more and hit here. Highsmith has been productive this season with 9.0 sacks out of a league average rush win rate of 16% on the brink. Additionally, Ryan has taken sacks at a 7.4% above average rate this year. The fact that Watt is playing again only helps, as he will create pressure for his teammates to clean up the sacks.
Grumpy: i’m going with pat freiermuth on 42.5 yards receiving. In his last four games, Freiermuth averaged 8.7 goals. In three of those games, he has beaten this support line. Freiermuth has become one of Pickett’s main targets. He’s also in a great spot to score a touchdown against the Colts.
Source: news.google.com